Now I am old enough to remember all the gas shortages, 1973 and 1979. In 1979 with Carter there was the odd and even dictum, as Christie has instituted in New Jersey. Lines of cars waiting for gas.
Now this is a simple queueing problem. In queues there are three inputs and one output for example.
The inputs are:
1. The Arrival Rate
2. The Holding Time
3. The Number of Servers.
Now there are other subtleties as well but let us look at a simple queue. The output in a simple analysis is say the average queue length.
Now let us examine what odd and even does.
1. Arrival Rate: The arrival rate is driven by human factors here. If there were no restrictions, say during a normal period, people will wait till their tank is well below half knowing that they can get gas anywhere. Thus they get gas at say a quarter a tank. Now when you restrict gas, say by this odd and even deal you get people getting anxious. They see then tank below 3/4 or 2/3 and they start looking to top off. So the arrival rate then doubles or triples.
Also the State has limited open hours, that further increases the arrival rate. The less hours the more people arriving during the alleged open hours. Thus by reducing open hours from 16 to say 4 we further increase an arrival rate by a factor of 4.
The total increase in arrival rate would be 8-12 time normal all due to Government action.
2. Holding Time: Frankly the time to fill a tank is dominated by delays and getting a gas server, a human. In new Jersey you must have a person pump the gas so the holding time is increased and as such it is almost independent of how much gas you get. Thus the holding time is constant.
3. Number of Servers: Well as a result of DHS and NJ restrictions not to mention the lack of electricity the number of servers is cut to less than a third, and then add the police setting limited times and controlling flows, the servers are cut even lower, I estimate to one tenth.
Now the State has further exasperated the problem by forcing certain stations in congested areas from even opening, thus withdrawing the number of servers.
The result, tremendous queue lengths. You have Government control rather than the free market, Christie has become Carter. Amazing. Now back in 1980 the analysis which I just outlined was done and it was compared to the data from the Carter lines, same as the Christie lines. The solution, get Government out of the way.
Namely the use of Odd/Even has just made things worse. They did so in 1979 under Carter and are repeating under Christie in 2012. Same theory and same data. The only problem here is that NJ license plates are a mess, very few end in numbers. So how does one choose odd and even if you end in a Z? Do you go back to the last digit, and use that, it is not what the Executive Order states. So we have more confusion. See what Government does.
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