Thursday, December 19, 2019

Shocking but Expected

Since we wrote the tie in between Obesity Type 2 Diabetes and Cancer some ten years ago there has been a continuing drum beat that it is solely genetic and a disease not a controllable human state. Now NEJM notes:

The findings from our approach suggest with high predictive accuracy that by 2030 nearly 1 in 2 adults will have obesity (48.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 47.7 to 50.1), and the prevalence will be higher than 50% in 29 states and not below 35% in any state. Nearly 1 in 4 adults is projected to have severe obesity by 2030 (24.2%; 95% CI, 22.9 to 25.5), and the prevalence will be higher than 25% in 25 states. We predict that, nationally, severe obesity is likely to become the most common BMI category among women (27.6%; 95% CI, 26.1 to 29.2), non-Hispanic black adults (31.7%; 95% CI, 29.9 to 33.4), and low-income adults (31.7%; 95% CI, 30.2 to 33.2).

 They conclude:

We project that given current trends, nearly 1 in 2 U.S. adults will have obesity by 2030, and the prevalence will be higher than 50% in 29 states and not below 35% in any state — a level currently considered high. Furthermore, our projections show that severe obesity will affect nearly 1 in 4 adults by 2030 and become the most common BMI category among women, black non-Hispanic adults, and low-income adults.

We would project that the cost of the obesity epidemic will result in a collapse of our health care system. Diseases from kidney failure and cancer, cardiac diseases, oracular diseases, and various other chronic and acute disorders resulting from this will create an explosive pandemic. The cause is simple, overeating. Recent work by Roden and Schulman noted the details of T2 diabetes and obesity.

The solution must be an attempt to put a price on obesity. In a sense obesity is more of a threat to humanity than global warming, at least in the short term. It is possible that the sequellae from obesity can cause a major economic and social collapse.

Roden and Shulman, The Intehrative Biology of Type 2 Diabetes, Nature, Vol 576, 5 Dec 2019.
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