NJ 2021 09 25

 This is the last week of September and things seem to have leveled. But we are now into booster shots and hopefully that keeps things down. Still we have very low immunization in certain communities. Nothing seems to work and it clearly is not what the Press wants us to believe.

Let's start. First the ratio of new infections nationally to vulnerable base. It appears to be flattening. Perhaps we are running out of people. Moreover the prevalence of Delta variant is near 100%. Now that tells us something critical. Variants generate out of the non immunized and moreover those from afar. The Border problem could cause a major issue in several months.

The immunizations are dropping again. Politics plays too strong a role. This did not happen in the days of the Polio vaccine which was even more virulent.

Town doubling is increasing but again I suspect we are running out of vulnerables.

The incidence in town and county are decreasing.

And town prevalence is dropping. One may question the periodicity in this chart.

Here is the concern, deaths. Mortally is still 14-15% in LTC and 2-3% in non LTC. Not clear what that is telling us.

The new infected in the state has peaked

and shows decrease in county

The doubling time is flat and may actually be increasing

The state prevalence is peaking

and the county seems flat.