Some Thoughts on the Virus

 This is a strange virus. It mutates rapidly, think BA.5, and it reinfects, whatever that means, frequently. The antiviral really does not work, but apparently no one wants to say that. BA.5 infections can lead to BA.5 reinfections. But is it a new infection or just a restart? There are so many unanswered questions.

The answers all lie in the electrical binding properties of two proteins: the spike and the ACE2 receptor. The latter does not change in humans. The former mutates a lot since the virus is a single stranded RNA virus and it tends to infect immunocompromised people allowing for many mutations.

However, and this is critical, as the spike mutates it becomes less and less able to bind to ACE2. When that happens that mutation becomes benign, never infecting. Theoretically.

Unless, and this is also critical, the original design was such that mutations were delimited to only non-ACE2 binding sites. Can this have been achieved. Possibly, especially in a human engineered virus.

It may take decades to sort this out as the virus continues to mutate. New evasive antibody changes but no ACE2 receptor changes. Yet no one seems to recognize this effect! Alas it is out Government wizards at work.

Now as a follow on thought, perhaps the COVID virus forms granulomas, allowing the virus to persist and return again. We see that in a variety of diseases, perhaps here as well.

BA.5 and the overall mess.

 

BA.5 is a highly mutated version of the virus. Most likely the next versions will be driven by BA.5 and its variants. Thus an updated vaccine using mRNA from BA.5 spike may be good for a year are more but cleanly the original vaccine will fade in immunogenicity.

In a Medscape report they note:

Now the FDA is trying to prompt the companies to make the shots available sooner, potentially as soon as early to mid-September, according to The Washington Post . If the bivalent booster timeline can be sped up, the FDA will likely skip the authorization of second boosters of the original vaccines for all adults. The shift in strategy is facing mixed reactions. Some public health experts believe the move is the best strategy since three shots still protect most young, healthy adults from severe COVID-19. It could also improve booster rates in the fall...But other public health experts aren't sure that the new vaccines will be much better or dramatically improve antibody rates more than the current boosters. "People should not regard them as some sort of magic bullet that gives them super-strong protection. They are not going to be magic bullet game-changers, because they're not that much better than the already available vaccine boosters," John Moore, PhD, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York City, told NPR. What's more, the boosters may not be ready by September, and experts can't predict whether BA.5 will be the dominant virus in the fall and winter. "I don't see the benefit of waiting for a BA.5-specific booster since BA.5 may be in the rearview mirror and well past us by the time that's available," Peter Hotez, MD, dean of the Baylor College of Medicine National School of Tropical Medicine, told the news outlet.

First as we have argued from the very beginning there will be ongoing variants. We can sequence them and rapidly generate new vaccines to target the ever changing spike proteins. Unlike some of the above "experts" albeit changing variants is accepted but we must follow these changes with changing vaccines. In fact like flu shots perhaps we should have vaccines with multiple variants. 

The Arrogant Academic?

 As I have noted before, Science magazine has wandered from a professional scientific journal to a left leaning set of postings. In a recent one there was a diatribe against the US Supreme Court as well as a mass of US citizens. Specifically the author states:

The United States has an insatiable desire for technological advancement but is governed by founding documents that are completely unsuited for science and technology. This incongruity has manifested in recent disastrous actions by the US Supreme Court on guns, abortion, and climate. The decisions suggest that the battle is being won by the portion of America who—while lionizing the past and clinging to the infallibility of words written in the late 18th century—can’t put down their cell phones. Reactionary posts on social media wouldn’t get very far without a hundred years of technical advances—and massive amounts of power to recharge mobile device batteries and run the server farms that support the digital world. Because the disconnect between aspects of modern life and the framing of the country’s governance appears inconsequential to the conservative majority of justices in the US Supreme Court, it is vital that the scientific community advocate a political and societal landscape in which compassion and adaptability attend technological progress.

 As we have noted previously the abortion ruling was one rejecting the constitutional right to privacy via some unseen penumbra. What the Court ruled was not against abortion but that the logic of the original ruling was faulty. The Court said people could do whatever they wanted but that abortion was not a Constitutional Right. As for the gun ruling the right does exist and it can be delimited but not in extremis. 

Scientists do science. As citizens they can rightly petition their Government but there must be an acceptance of any petitioning. Negative statements have existed for millennia, not just because some social media service exists.

It is a shame that we have these characters bemoan in such a manner that grossly lacks understanding.

Whiners?

 Science has slowly become a social left wing rag rather than the heads on competitor to Nature, the standard in scientific publications. Think Watson and Crick in 1953. In a recent Science piece the author writes:

t was 3 a.m. I was exhausted from taking care of my 3-month-old baby, but I couldn’t sleep. As I tried to recall the topics of the five conference calls on my calendar for the morning, I again had the haunting thought that I wasn’t good enough for my job—a director position I started shortly before my baby was born. I imagined I would make mistakes in my presentations and my team would lose respect for me. Tormented by these thoughts, I reached for a book from the pile on my bedside table to distract myself. By chance I grabbed the Bible, which I had been too busy to read since my baby was born. As I opened it to a random page and happened on the verse “For when I am weak, then I am strong,” tears filled my eyes, and I could breathe again. My upbringing gave me an “achiever” personality. From childhood class president to prestigious university degrees to a leadership position in a large company, I was regarded as a “star.” People see me as confident, ambitious, competent, and energetic. But I always feared seeming imperfect in the eyes of others. I worked as hard as I could to make up for my flaws.But after becoming a new mom and starting a new job, I was unable to excel no matter how hard I worked. The job required me to attend meetings with almost no break between 7 a.m. and 5 p.m....

 Let me go back some nearly sixty years. When my daughter was born at Lying In in Boston, across the street from the Med School on Longwood Ave, I scurried across the street while my wife was in labor and ended assisting in the process. Got credit for the one, the OB was late working on another delivery. Then back across the street till the next AM, I think 6, take wife and daughter home and then back again....Take kids to school, then off to class, teaching this time, then sports, then etc. Never thought it was a problem. Did not bemoan.

When we did a second round financing of one of my companies my daughter was then 9 months pregnant, and at 11:45 we needed letters posted at an all night Post Office, and off she went with the boxes...never whining about the process.

One did what was required, one did not moan and whine, especially in public and especially not in some world class scientific journal. But I found out a few years ago that this is now de rigueur. We were financing an MIT start up when the erstwhile CEO said he needed his parental leave. His wife just had a child and she worked at MIT and had her 3-4 month paid leave and he wanted to be certain he got his in the new company. He wanted us to fund his leave! 

In the old days one would have expected both to show up the first day with child in tow! No whining! But alas we have new rules. Guess there is a benefit to getting old.

Trust?

 Trust is a critical factor in dealing with people especially professionals. Do we trust our accountant? If not that we have a problem. Do we trust our physician? If not things get worse. Now a recent news piece noted:

Former White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx says she knew that the COVID-19 vaccines would not protect against infection. “I knew these vaccines were not going to protect against infection. And I think we overplayed the vaccines, and it made people then worry that it’s not going to protect against severe disease and hospitalization,” she told Fox News. “It will. But let’s be very clear: 50% of the people who died from the Omicron surge were older, vaccinated. So that’s why I’m saying even if you’re vaccinated and boosted, if you’re unvaccinated right now, the key is testing and Paxlovid. It’s effective. It’s a great antiviral. And really, that is what’s going to save your lives right now if you’re over 70, which if you look at the hospitalizations, hospitalizations are rising steadily with new admissions, particularly in those over 70. And so if you live in the South — I know people keep talking about the fall — I’m worried about the South.”

 Now any first year med student should know that vaccines produce antibodies which in turn fight viruses when a person is infected. They do NOT prevent infection, whatever that means. The prevent the symptoms of the infection and allow the immune system to kill of the virus. 

Now the previous President is not educated in medicine but his advisors are. Thus what he says reflects their expertise. If they prevaricate in telling him things then they have breached their duty not only as a Government employee but as a physician. The trust is gone, gone forever.  

Over the past two plus years I have written excessively about this virus. Regrettably I have had to explain how viruses work to many colleagues, some being physicians. But this virus has infected and reinfected vaccinated people. The only solution is distancing, staying out of crowds, and time. As we may guess the virus will mutate to so low level chronic issue. 

But the loss of trust resulting from the actions of people like those above means we no longer believe anything a Government employee says. A bad way to run a democracy.

Rights, From Whence do they Cometh?

 Let us consider a simple tale about rights. It seems we have people claiming them galore these days. Our Bill of Rights is really quite limited but alas many more have been claimed beyond this document's lists.

Say some people want the wearing of hats as a right. Namely any person at any time in any place in the United States may if they so desire wear a hat. This is the right of hat wearing. Now how does this right, allegedly, become a real right? Well for one Congress can pass a law. Yet another Congress can invalidate that law. Can the President do anything? Not really under our Constitution, the President is there only to execute laws, not make them. What of the Supreme Court? Well it can adjudge this right as not part of the Constitution. But alas if it is a law, it still stands.

A second path is to have Congress make this an Amendment to the Constitution. It takes 3/4th of the States to agree but if it passes then the Supreme Court may interpret it. That is why it must be written with no ambiguity.

A third way is a state by state approach. Namely I have a right to hat wearing in New Jersey but not in New York. 

But what of conflicts.  Say a religion forbids hats in Church. The Constitution protects religious freedom so does that mean the Bill of Rights trumps the Hat wearing amendment!

Welcome to law!

US Constitution vs English Constitution

 Prince Harry is a classic example of excess inbreeding and Royal Privilege. The US has a Constitution in black and white. Hundreds of millions of copies are floating about this planet. Just go a try and find the English Constitution. No where to be found. It is some amalgam of laws and agreements that lend itself to interpretation and the Royal assertions. 

Our Constitution gets "interpreted" by the Supreme Court and yes indeed the interpretations do change from time to time. In our laws, words mean something, at least they should, We have a Bill of Rights which is somewhat clear, we have amendments which also are somewhat clear. Oftentimes they get stretched and that is when we have problems. But there are the black and white texts we can go back to. If we do not like it we can change it, and change it again. Just look at prohibition.

As National Review notes regarding this dim witted Royal:

“We’re living through a pandemic that continues to ravage communities in every corner of the globe,” he said in the speech to mark Nelson Mandela International Day. “Climate change wreaking havoc on our planet, with the most vulnerable suffering most of all. The few weaponizing lies and disinformation at the expense of the many. And from the horrific war in Ukraine to the rolling back of constitutional rights here in the United States, we are witnessing a global assault on democracy and freedom, the cause of Mandela’s life.”

Strange to have a Royal speak to Mandela. After all it was the Brits who mandated  the brutal treatments of the natives as they did to the Irish, Indians, and all other inhabitants of their alleged Empire. After all it was Henry II who "gave" Ireland to his useless offspring John in 1162 and for almost 800 years they slaughtered and butchered the people of Ireland. As to the alleged "constitutional rights" one assumes he means Roe v Wade. Now the problem there has been for the past fifty years, there is no right of privacy in the Constitution, shadow or otherwise. That does not mean that abortion is illegal, it means it is covered by other laws, if at all. 

Perhaps it is my Irish but to have this person who is but a guest of our country tell us what we should do I had thought we won the Revolutionary war!

Will Amazon Survive?

 Amazon was at one time an entity one cold trust. Then they became a bazaar with many less than trustworthy vendors and now deliveries are impossible. There is no recourse. For example in the past three days:

1. Ordered a used book and told it was shipped with a tracking number. Did not get the number. Asked for the number then told the order was cancelled. I was to get a refund. It never happened.

2. I then ordered from another Amazon vendor. Told a couple of days. Four days later get tracking number but the book is being shipped from Frankfurt Germany. If lucky I will have it by Labor Day.

3. I ordered some electronics. Took 3 days to process the order and 4 days having the order bounce arounf Houston. Never expect to get the order this century.

Amazon was a trustworthy seller. Now it is pure buyer beware. I find it better to go straight to the vendor and avoid Amazon at all costs. I wonder if anyone is listening.

Variants, Subvariants and the Government

 When COVID first came forth from China it came with sequencing also from China. It was like a time bomb with the instructions on how to defuse it. Well it kind of worked. Under the previous Administration an exceptionally effective effort led to an mRNA vaccine which dealt with the original virus.

But, as is well known, the single stranded RNA viruses mutate like crazy especially in immune compromised populations, like third world areas. One such as been South Africa and its massive HIV population as well as large migrant populations allowing for massive infections.

Now we are facing subvariants. Subvariants are derivative of a variant, especially a variant of concern, VOC. The WHO has developed the most arcane set of definitions but let us call the most recent BA.5. It is spreading like wild fire. It is a subvariant of Omicron, B.1.1.529. Not to worry, the WHO has created a naming nightmare.

However the subvariants can be targeted by a vaccine built around Omicron. Or even BA.5 itself. It would just take a few hours to create the spike mRNA and put it in the original vaccine! Easy.

Now The Hill notes:

The BA.5 subvariant of omicron that now makes up the majority of U.S. COVID-19 cases is sparking concern because it has a greater ability to evade the protection of current vaccines than past strains of the virus did. Pfizer and Moderna are working on updated vaccines that target BA.5 that could be ready this fall, but experts say that by the time they are ready, a new variant very well could have taken hold.   As alternatives to vaccine makers chasing each variant, experts point to research on “pan-coronavirus” vaccines that are “variant-proof,” targeting multiple variants, as well as nasal vaccines that could drastically cut down on transmission of the virus. There is ongoing research on these next-generation vaccines, but unlike in 2020, when the federal government’s Operation Warp Speed helped speed the development of the original vaccine, there is less funding and assistance this time around.   COVID-19 funding that could help develop and manufacture new vaccines more quickly has been stalled in Congress for months. “There’s no Operation Warp Speed,” said Eric Topol, professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research. “So it’s moving very slowly. But at least it’s moving.” 

Namely the current Administration seems in my opinion to be grossly incompetent placing millions of lives at risk. We know how to do this we just need leadership. That comes from the top and there we are apparently lacking any at all.

Dumbest PSA Ever

 

The above is a snapshot of the NYC PSA abut what to do in the event of a nuclear attack. Having spent time in the 70s on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Negotiations I have a modicum of real understanding of a nuclear attack. Namely the end of everything. No "duck and cover". Now some facts to counter the dumb and dumber folks above.

1. A 50 MT 5000 ft blast will kill 20 million in NYC area in femto seconds. Dead, most vaporized. 

2. The same blast will get about 25 million more in a 100 mile radius. If the weapon is MIRVed then the initial total can reach 50 million real time.

3. Shut your window? Are you nuts, the thermal wave will melt it and the pressure wave will turn it back to sand.

4. Stay tuned to what! The EMP will wipe out all communications, fry every solid state device. And the Internet! Gonzo.

When you get stuff like this it shows one how grossly incompetent our Government employees truly are. Pity!

Human, where is my breakfast!

 

Electric Cars?

 Ok so here we go. Some facts. I have two grandsons who live in Texas, yes Texas. They have a Tesla and decided to drive back home for the 4th. It is about 1500 miles. Now it took about 30 hours. That is averaging 50 mph and it was non stop except for battery charging. They stopped 7 times for 45 min charges. Thus of the 30 hours some almost 6 hours was spent charging. Had it been just gasoline then they would have had an average speed of 70 mph and taken 21 hours. 

The electric vehicle added 9 hours of time and reduced the speed by 20 mph. Now about costs, Say we get 35 mpg, a good new vehicle, same size. That would be 43 gallons at $5 per gallon 05 about $210. The charging is about $15 per charge or $105. Half the cost for energy but almost a 50% increase in time. Remember that time is money.

Now we know that gasoline engines produce CO2. So too does electricity. What is the comparison here? Do not really know. But that is my next exercise.

I will keep my gas Honda for the time being.

Some Thoughts on SCOTUS

 One must be careful in commenting on SCOTUS decisions. Thus I waited a bit to make some observations. Let me begin:

Abortion: A complex issue. In Thomistic Theology there is the concept of the unjust aggressor. Thus rape and incest follows the unjust aggressor rule allowing for abortion. However that is irrelevant since the elimination of Roe was predicated on bad SCOTUS decisions. Indeed there is no right of privacy in the Constitution, penumbra not withstanding. The Warren and Brandeis paper established that. So why not? Simple, Congress could readily enact a right to privacy but it never will. Why, the Government and everyone else wants to know what you are doing. Think NSA! You will never have privacy. It is worse today than ever before. The logic behind the Roe decisions was in my opinion flawed. There being no right to privacy then thus the right to an abortion is void if that were the premise. However abortions are not a new phenomenon and many countries allow for them in a variety of circumstances. The problem is that in the US there is no national law and there are some fifty plus local laws. Thus abortion per se was not done away with it was localized. The real problem in my opinion is that there are two camps with no possibility of common ground. One camp wants nothing and a second camp wants anything.

EPA; Here the issue is simple. Chevron. The SCOTUS stated in Chevron that if Congress wrote a bill that was incomprehensible then the Executive could interpret it any way it wanted to. Nonsense. Congress should be more careful and amend its own mistakes. We have seen an explosion in Administrative law, more than any other country. Why? Simply Congress is lazy and pardon the observation just plain dumb. So many laws are written by lobbyists for their own purposes. It is about time to rid ourselves of Chevron and get Congress to write readable laws! Administrative Law has become the bane of all in the US. Having done business in over twenty countries I can attest that the US has the most complex system. We have un-elected Government employees "making" new laws on the fly and the same bunch adjudicating them via Administrative Law Judges.

School Tuition: Well here we have a mess. If I want to send my child to a private school and pay taxes than I should get the benefit of the tax. However the school should be pari passu with all others. Sticky wicket at best.