In a recent article by the former head of the NIH, in the NY
Times, the author notes:
Future historians will judge the development of safe and
effective mRNA vaccines for Covid in 11 months as one of the greatest medical
achievements in human history. We felt that at last we were on a path to
conquering this disease and stopping the terrible death toll. And to a major
extent, that came true: Current estimates by the Commonwealth Fund, a nonprofit
foundation supporting research on health care, are that more than three million
lives were saved in the United States between December 2020 and November 2022
by Covid vaccines. If you were vaccinated, you might be one of them. I might be
also. Yet ultimately more than 50 million adult Americans declined vaccination
— even after the shots were made widely available at no cost. Though medicine
and public health make poor bedfellows with politics, one’s political party was
a strong predictor of resistance. So was religion, with white evangelical
Christians (my own group) the most resistant of all. Public distrust, driven
by social media, cable news and even some politicians, reflected a host of
concerns: whether Covid-19 was real, whether it was really all that serious,
whether the vaccines were rushed, whether there were common and serious side
effects that had been hidden, whether the mRNA would alter the recipient’s DNA,
and whether companies had skirted the rules about safety. More outlandish
conspiracies also circulated on social media: that the vaccines contained
microchips or cells from recently aborted fetuses, for example. People of faith
were particularly hard hit by misinformation.
The author then presents his “philosophical” version of “truth”.
He states:
What do we mean by truth anyway?
Let’s consider a set of concentric circles that represent
various levels of truth. At the center is what could be called the zone of
necessary truth. Items in this zone consist of statements about a concrete
reality that just has to be the way that it is. Those items would have to be
true in any imaginable universe, and they don’t care how we feel. In this
rather narrow zone, the main entries are from mathematics and possibly from the
nature of time. ….
Unfortunately this alleged layer of truth has been buffeted
by the minds of mathematicians over the centuries. Non-Euclidian geometry just
a simple example. He continues:
The next circle out, which is the home for a much wider
range of reality claims, is firmly established facts. These are conclusions
that are overwhelmingly supported by evidence, but discerning them has required
human observation. We can safely place here most scientific conclusions about
objective reality that have been supported by multiple experimental approaches
and sustained over many decades…
The author asserts DNA as such an example. However how we
perceive DNA today as compared to how it was perceived in 1953 is dramatically
different. Science at this level is a continual battle of ideas. It is one of “on
the one hand and then on the other” For example, what is cancer? In 1964 I
read Watson’s book on the Gene. Now when I read the literature it is
dramatically more complex.
As we move further out from the center, we reach claims
that are potentially true, but the evidence is currently insufficient to move
them into the circle of firmly established facts. We can call this the zone of
uncertainty. Here’s an example: Did mask mandates provide benefit to a
community in reducing Covid transmission? One careful study in Bangladesh said
yes, but other large-scale studies in the West have had difficulty documenting
that — with a major reason being that compliance has been so uneven. On the
other hand, many studies have shown personal benefit from consistent
mask-wearing in reducing risk to individuals and their close contacts.
This statement can be an example of how “politicians” mess
things up. To answer the mask issue we must first understand how the disease is
transmitted. Since COVID is a single stranded RNA virus, which attached to
cells via an ACE2 membrane receptor, it may be just nano particle like. No one
knows. If nano then masks of the typical variety are useless. Furthermore,
viruses can enter the surface of the eye, go down the gland to the nose then from
there anywhere. So must we wear eye protection as well. Nano masks and nano eye
protection are not readily available. Level 2 bio-hazard facilities may have
them but never saw them on the E train. This issue is still not resolved and
the author unfortunately seems clueless and balmes the public for even raising
the question.
Going even farther out, we get into territory where facts
and evidence are frankly scanty or just irrelevant. This is the zone of
subjective opinion. Some examples: Tattoos are cool. Dogs make better pets than
cats. Shoes with brown leather tops and thick white soles look really good on
men (on this last one, opinions at my house do not match). Disagreements about
topics in this zone do not threaten the order of things. In fact, they make our
society richer and more interesting because people have different tastes.
The above are opinions, not facts. I like blue not orange.
Perhaps it is the genetic makeup of my limbic system.
When disagreements arise about what is true, it is really
important to assess which zone we are working in. Looking at our concentric
circles, I think we can all accept that claims in the outermost zone are
subjective, so it’s fine to disagree about those. But here’s the point I really
want to emphasize: As you move inward to zones where there is more and more
actual evidence, it becomes more and more important to track down that
evidence, and not just say that everything is a matter of opinion. When you get
to the solid foundation in the innermost two circles, these are matters of
currently established truth that have to be true for everybody. Those facts
don’t care how you feel, and they can’t be — and are not — a matter of opinion.
Opinions are available to all. Truth may be very difficult
to determine. COVID was a challenge. What was shown was that the arrogance of “experts”
and politicians isolated the public in a lack of trust. In my opinion and my
experience the political experts exuded gross arrogance and talked down to the
public. The author is a physician and a scientist. That duplex lends itself to
a certain mindset. In contrast I studied medicine and see myself fundamentally
as an engineer. When using my engineering expertise to raise capital in a
venture world, I could only succeed by understanding how to communicate with the
investors, I had to get to their level of understanding, I had to convince them
with facts, and avoided truths. For in a venture environment today’s truth may
be tomorrow’s falsity. Think dotcom bust.
For a scientist, however, especially one under the rubric of
the Government, they speak ex Cathedra. The arrogance of the scientist isolated
the citizens and led to islands of disbelief. This article has no self doubt,
just a continuation of the attitude of “truth” is theirs and if you fail to
accept it you are anathema!
The author talks of efficacy. He alleges that the mRNA vaccine has high efficacy. In reality we face moving targets. Namely the virus mutates continuously. Secondly, the mRNA vaccine does NOT prevent infection, frankly no vaccine does. It just primes the immune system through B cells antibodies, T cells and the rest of the adaptive immune response. It does not prevent transmission. It takes days to get the primed immune system to react, and during that time we have the possibility to transmit. These are complex issues, dealing with an moderate understanding of the immune system. Political science types seem to fail to understand that 99.999% of the people are clueless! Thus when they make dicta to be obeyed, and find out that the extreme dicta are not TRUTH, they lose all confidence. Once lost never regained!