NJ 2021 09 25

 This is the last week of September and things seem to have leveled. But we are now into booster shots and hopefully that keeps things down. Still we have very low immunization in certain communities. Nothing seems to work and it clearly is not what the Press wants us to believe.

Let's start. First the ratio of new infections nationally to vulnerable base. It appears to be flattening. Perhaps we are running out of people. Moreover the prevalence of Delta variant is near 100%. Now that tells us something critical. Variants generate out of the non immunized and moreover those from afar. The Border problem could cause a major issue in several months.

The immunizations are dropping again. Politics plays too strong a role. This did not happen in the days of the Polio vaccine which was even more virulent.

Town doubling is increasing but again I suspect we are running out of vulnerables.

The incidence in town and county are decreasing.

And town prevalence is dropping. One may question the periodicity in this chart.

Here is the concern, deaths. Mortally is still 14-15% in LTC and 2-3% in non LTC. Not clear what that is telling us.

The new infected in the state has peaked

and shows decrease in county

The doubling time is flat and may actually be increasing

The state prevalence is peaking

and the county seems flat.

Fox on the Hunt

 

Watch out at 2 AM!

Another Interesting Slide

 

Now just pause for a moment and look at the above. It is the number of daily infections versus the percent immune, namely vaccinated plus previously infected. 

First, it seem flattening. Namely we are running out of uninfected and thus vulnerable people.

Second we are at 76% immune. Yes folks, well above that herd number of 70% the wizards were touting last year! Told you so then and now.

Third, we have hot spot spreaders. If the public knew who and where we could shun them. But on today's political environment identifying the plague borne carriers is not allowed. 

Fourth, we may be getting to a burn out point soon.

Another Farewell

 Another colleague from my Warner days has passed away, Nick Davatzes. Nick was Gus Hauser's trusted confidant and managed to persuade me that an MIT PhD would find a home at a cable and movie company. 

Nick was a true gentleman. A rare find in the entertainment industry and frankly anywhere. I sought his advice from time to time and it was always spot on. I recall Nick's office at A&E as I was transitioning from NYNEX/Verizon to the venture world. Nick has no pile of personal stuff. His comments was that he was just the current occupant and when the next arrives had would have very little to carry out. That was one of the most critical insights I ever had.

In my dealings with Nick he was selfless and giving, especially of advice that was helpful. As a former Marine I saw him as one of the long line of leathernecks that had stood by me in my long career.

I will always be thankful for his advice and insight.

NJ 2021 09 18

 Continuing along we still see significant relative incidence. Masks are being worn etc and vaccinations continue but there are clusters we know nothing about. Competent Public Health Officers would publicly indicate the characteristics of the clusters. But alas we have no such competence.

First, the doubling time for  NJ. It is still too low and it should be increasing.

The new incidence for NJ is running 2000 per day. Given that 90% of state is either vaccinated or previously immune this means an unweighted incidence of 20,000 per day. Who are these people!

The county is even worse.

Deaths are even a more significant factor. LTC death continue are 2-3 per day! How can this happen? Worse death rates in the newly infected are almost 3-4%!

The town doubling time is nearing 100! Almost 100% are either vaccinated or immune. Who are these people. We really need information.

The prevalence is 40 people walking around infected. Again, who!

The new county and town show the increases.

Nationally we see a similar effect.

But vaccinations continue, albeit slowly.

Gross Incompetence?

 For 110 years we have understood antibodies, recalling the classic work of Landsteiner in 1901. Each day we get better at the process. We can identify Ab and especially Abs for this current corona virus.

Having said that and now having almost 200 million Americans vaccinated one would have though there would have been a massive Ab testing process with the data publicly available.

This is especially true after the entry of the current  administration.

Simple process. Get say 10,000 volunteers and measure Abs say monthly. Publish the data. See how the Ab decrease.

As a side note we do have the resident memory T cells, Trm, that we cannot measure that kick in as well to fight infections, but le us not focus there yet.

But alas we have had zero from the CDC! Missing in action, just poor zoom calls from its head who seems to be hiding in a cavern somewhere in the Smokeys!

As the NY Times notes:

Government and outside experts presented conflicting data Friday morning on whether Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus booster shots are needed in the United States to an independent panel that advises the Food and Drug Administration. The advisory committee is weighing that request for approval of a booster shot for people 16 and older at least six months after their second shot.

The answer would be trivial if the CDC had done its job. Instead we have continued chaos from the administration since there is no science to follow.