Fault Tree Analysis

Fault Tree Analysis is a fifty year plus old technique often mandated on sensitive systems. I used it in the 70s on certain nuclear weapons analyses. The approach it to document all the steps possible and then to assess what would happen if one or more were incorrectly performed, or failed, and then ascertain the consequence. Usually they could be dramatic in the nuclear field, so then you remedied the situation.

We always understood that "words mean something" so that we carefully tried to understand the commands and maker certain there was no ambiguity.

Now to the Hawaii fiasco. Clearly the state folks were clueless. But the consequences of that clueless behavior could have been devastating. The system needs a total overhaul, starting at the top, the very top. But politics being politics one just sees deflection. The discussion in ArsTechnica details the clear incompetence. They note:

It appears the employee who sent out the mobile and broadcast missile alert that sent Hawaii into a panic for 38 minutes on Saturday was supposed to choose "DRILL - PACOM (CDW) - STATE ONLY" but instead chose "PACOM (CDW) - STATE ONLY" from an unordered list of equally unintuitive and difficult-to-read options.

Think Fault Tree Analysis in broad scopes.