Friday, March 22, 2019

Treasury Spreads

Above are a few Yield Curves. Look at yesterdays. It is really inverted. The dip in the 10 year region is significant. Short Term yields are the highest yet.
The above is the spread of 10 year to 90 days. It is negative in the current period. It had gotten close before but now it is in real negative territory.

So you can buy a house and the rates are not too bad. But if you are the US Treasury and most of your debt is short term, you are in deep trouble. If we assume a 22 trillion debt at 2.5% annual interest rate that is $550 billion debt payments. So if you look at the Budget, you have $550 billion for interest, and still some $300-400 billion for the obligations under Obamacare.

There is zero chance of solving this problem. I think. Oh yes, massive inflation!