Vote by Mail Scam has Started in NJ

 Well as expected, I got the vote by mail package. Guarantee that it will not be accepted since one wonders what the signature looked like 40 years ago! That is what they are using the verify and you can be sure that since the vote is NOT a secret ballot that the opposing Party will contest the ballot, if it even gets that far. Second, I tried to sign up to track my mail in and the system tells me I am not registered! Yep, voting more than 200 times and now I am NOT registered.Thank Phil and all you folks in Trenton. As this process continues I am certain that for those of us who have a modicum of intelligence we will be seeing one part of this scam after another!

NJ 2020 09 29

 Just some observations. We are still losing people almost every day at LTC. There should be no losses since they are de facto quarantined. However it does bring into question the validity of the data or the gross negligence of both the State and the LTC management.

First the growth in the state continues. Not much but substantial. Most likely younger and no deaths in that group.

The deaths show the gross incompetence somewhere with the LTC.

Finally Ocean County is still the leader in the new infections. One would suspect that the alleged contact tracing could remediate this but then again it is New Jersey.

An Interesting Set of Statistics

 The CDC reports the following set of stats:

Median number of days from death to reporting (interquartile range)^¶¶

18-49 years: 19 (5, 45) days

50-64 years: 21 (6, 46) days

≥65 years: 19 (5, 44) days

This means that deaths may be reported 45 days after they occur!  One of the most significant facts in control theory is that systems with reporting delays are inherently unstable. This has been a chronic problem we have commented on many times.

The fatality ratios are reported as:

0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054

 From the Census we have:

Population percent under 18 is 22.3%

Population over 65 is 16.5%

Population over 18 and under 65 is 61.2%

The total population is 328 million

Thus:

Pop under 18 is 73 million

Pop over 65 is 54 million

Pop between is 201 million

Based upon the above the total mortality if everyone was infected would be:

Pop under 18 is 2,190

Pop over 65 is 2.9 million

Pop between is 201,000

These are estimated given the data between Census and CDC is NOT compatible. But it tells a story. The total deaths for those under say 70, would be about 202,000. Currently Hopkins reports some 200,000 or more deaths. It is fair to say that about half of them are the over 65 group and more than 50% of them have per-existing conditions. 

Thus the elderly are the most concerned, the kids are just carriers with little risk and they pass it up to the middle group who are the major spreaders. If one could protect the elderly and those with per-existing then let the others do as they want, perhaps things are not that bad. Does anyone think this way?

Avignon in the 21st Century

 As the Guardian reports:

Mike Pompeo will visit the Vatican to protest against the imminent renewal of a deal between the Catholic church and China, which the US secretary of state claims endangers its moral authority. Pope Francis has reportedly declined to meet Pompeo during his visit this week, citing the closeness of the US election. However, such a move is likely to be linked to Pompeo’s recent attacks on the Vatican’s perceived soft-pedalling on China’s human rights record as the two sides prepare to extend a historic agreement signed two years ago. The details of the deal have never been made public, but it gave the Vatican a say in the appointment of Catholic bishops in China. Pope Francis also recognised eight bishops that had been appointed by Beijing without his approval. In the past two years, two new bishops have been appointed in China after consultation with the Vatican, and Chinese and Vatican officials met publicly for the first time in seven decades.

Perhaps the next step is to move the Pope to Hunan. It has a nice river and perhaps the Chinese Government can build a nice palace for a Chinese Pope. After all the last time the Church allowed the State to appoint clergy they moved to Avignon for almost a century. It was also during the 1348-1350 plague years as well. Nice set of coincidences.

But then again we may be lucky to get another Ockham who saw through this fallacy and set up the break from such Papal nonsense.

NJ 2020 09 26

 Things are not looking up. Last night we had behind our house a massive teenage girl party, screams and all. Let's see where that takes us. Today we went to Lambertville, table of young ladies onto their fourth drink each speaking at ultra high volume. Fortunately we were upwind and well apart.

So here we go:

Town is low, so far, county still has hot spots.

Town incidence is low but expect another spike.

You can see the hot spots, same as before.

State is slightly rising...that is a concern

County remains flat

Deaths are fortunately flat

But with growing incidence it is a concern.

And as noted LTC are still present

The county hot spot is quite clear. Apparently Ocean County is a real problem.

One suspects Ocean County towns are quite hot in infections. Toms River is well over 2000!

NJ 2020 09 24

 It is worth a small update. First the LTC death count. I would have thought the brains in Trenton would have solved this by now. Simple, the patients are by definition quarantined and the source of infection is the help. So test them! Instead we had 12 deaths yesterday! One truly wonders what the brain trust is doing down along the Delaware, if indeed that is where they are hiding.

Second, the daily incidence is dominated by the shore counties. Not having town details one cannot pinpoint but I suspect the same brain trust can. This seems like a simple problem to solve. But just look at Ocean county. The target is clear, the ability to act seems lacking. As with politics, all pandemic management is local!

No Trick or Treat

 The CDC recommends:

Avoid these higher risk activities to help prevent the spread of the virus that causes COVID-19:

• Participating in traditional trick-or-treating where treats are handed to children who go door to door
• Having trunk-or-treat where treats are handed out from trunks of cars lined up in large parking lots
• Attending crowded costume parties held indoors
• Going to an indoor haunted house where people may be crowded together and screaming
• Going on hayrides or tractor rides with people who are not in your household

Makes sense....but we shall see. Millions of little petri dishes going from home to home with dirty little hands! Bah humbug!

How COVID-19 Spreads

 

Back in March I presented the above graphic. Nothing too innovative. My grandmother spent a decade at Sea View Hospital in New York City managing TB and Spanish Flu patients. Wash your hands, don't touch your face, cover your mouth, don't touch things. She survived. I think I learned a lesson. But there was no scientific evidence just decades of experience.

Along comes the CDC. They now state:

COVID-19 is thought to spread mainly through close contact from person-to-person. Some people without symptoms may be able to spread the virus. We are still learning about how the virus spreads and the severity of illness it causes.

Person-to-person spread: The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

 1. Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).

2. Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks.

3. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.

4. COVID-19 may be spread by people who are not showing symptoms.

 The virus spreads easily between people: How easily a virus spreads from person-to-person can vary. Some viruses are highly contagious, like measles, while other viruses do not spread as easily. Another factor is whether the spread is sustained, which means it goes from person-to-person without stopping. The virus that causes COVID-19 is spreading very easily and sustainably between people. Information from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic suggests that this virus is spreading more efficiently than influenza, but not as efficiently as measles, which is highly contagious. In general, the more closely a person interacts with others and the longer that interaction, the higher the risk of COVID-19 spread.

 The virus may be spread in other ways: It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes. This is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads, but we are still learning more about how this virus spreads.

 Now is this not what we said in March? This is the nth revision of the CDC assessment. There seems to be a serious and chronic problem there. One wonders when it can and must be corrected?

As an added note, as we had also discussed, the virion travels in an encased  aerosol, namely an air filled water encased bubble that moves about with Newtons laws of motion as well as following Archimedes principle. The aerosol also has thermodynamic effects as well as Brownian motion effects. Thus aerosols "linger" depending upon a multiplicity of factors. Just what makes for lingering aerosols depends. ( see Seinfeld and Pandis, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Wiley, 2016, Chapters 9-10) There is a significant body of knowledge in atmospheric aerosols but virion containing ones, not so much.

What is lacking is good quality physical and clinical research. Unfortunately the CDC does not seem as advance as my grandmother back in 1918.

Vaccines: Some Thoughts

 Vaccines have been around for over a century. Some even more in a rudimentary form. Let us take a brief look.

First we have antigen presenting cells, cells that wander around looking for "stuff" that does not belong, like viruses.

They have proteins on their surface that work one of two ways. We focus on those with MHC II proteins.

Now as these APCs move about they collect proteins which we call antigens. They take these Ag and present them to the immune cells.

The T cell is one such immune cell and one which does a great deal to koll off the invader. Thus we need to get that T cell, a cytotoxic T lymphocyte, CTL activated against the Ag, and thus against the invader.

A second path is the B cells and the generation of antibodies, Ab. Ab are generated by the B cells and they go out and cover invading cells as markers.

The overall process is shown below in simple form.

We can summarize this as below.

Now there are multiple ways to generate a vaccine to kill off the invader. The classic manner is shown below. We use inactivated or weakened viruses and hope they stay that way. We inject them and then wait for an immune response. This is done by generating live virus elements oftentimes in eggs. This is a long and costly process, needless to say, using a lot of eggs.

A second way is a DNA vector injected into a patients and we use an electric shock to open the cell surface.

We can also use RNA to generate the Ag via a normal vaccination. Both of these are highly scalable and no eggs required.

A third way is a protein vector such as the COVID protein but with segments deleted.

Finally is a viral vector where we use the deactivated protein but place it in a more benign virus.

Just which of these will win out is unknown.

Vaccination Implementation

 In reviewing the CDC "proposal" for management and implementation of the vaccination program they note:  

An adequate network of trained, technically competent COVID-19 vaccination providers in accessible settings is critical to COVID-19 Vaccination Program success. For this reason, COVID-19 vaccination provider recruitment and enrollment may be the most critical activity conducted before vaccine becomes available. Jurisdictions and tribal organizations should concentrate early planning efforts on engaging those vaccination providers and services that can rapidly vaccinate initial populations of focus as soon as a COVID-19 vaccine is available (Phase 1). Subsequent planning should include measures for recruiting and enrolling enough providers to vaccinate additional critical populations and eventually the general population when sufficient vaccine supply is available (Phases 2 and 3). Vaccination Provider Recruitment Jurisdictions are encouraged to immediately reach out to potential COVID-19 vaccination providers and target the appropriate settings so that COVID-19 vaccination services are accessible to the initial populations of focus when the first COVID-19 vaccine doses arrive. Providers and settings that maximize the number of people who can be vaccinated should be prioritized for enrollment; however, jurisdictions should ensure social distancing and other infection control procedures can be maintained in selected settings (see CDC guidance on vaccination during a pandemic). 

 All providers/settings, especially those enrolled for Phase 1, must able to meet the reporting requirements discussed in Section 9: COVID-19 Vaccine Administration Documentation and Reporting and Section 11: COVID-19 Requirements for Immunization Information Systems or Other External Systems. Jurisdictions should consider partnering with the private sector and with local hospitals or health systems to provide COVID-19 vaccination in the closest proximity possible to the initial populations of focus. For example, partnering with critical access hospitals will be key to vaccinating Phase 1 populations in rural areas. Suggested early COVID-19 vaccination providers/settings include: 

• Large hospitals and health systems 

• Commercial partners (e.g., pharmacies) 

• Mobile vaccination providers 

• Occupational health settings for large employers 

• Critical access hospitals, RHCs, community health centers, or other central locations that can provide vaccination services for a broad area 

CDC is working to engage large pharmacy partners to assist with on-site vaccination in LTCFs. These partners have existing distribution and administration infrastructure (including cold chain) and relationships with some LTCFs to provide medication and, in some cases, vaccination services (e.g., seasonal influenza) for staff and residents in LTCFs; this may reduce burden on jurisdictional health departments. 

CDC will ensure jurisdictions have visibility on this work with large pharmacy partners. Jurisdictions should recruit additional COVID-19 vaccination providers to expand equitable access to COVID-19 vaccination when vaccine supply increases. Enrollment activities should be tracked so vaccination providers are not approached multiple times.

Unfortunately this is a general statement lacking specificity. The last sentence is the most critical. It leaves the details to the jurisdictions, I assume States. Unfortunately we saw how well this worked. But fundamentally the CDC is ill equipped to manage this effort. As they say, the devil is in the details.

Tom Paine Today

Thomas Paine was a unique player in the Revolution. Less than wealthy, less than of an upper class, and not an active military participant, his words carried men into many battles for independence. In a very real sense, Paine was a Progressive, when such did not exist. His writings comment on society at large and making it a better environment for all who live within its bounds. Despite his dislike of the English monarchy and its Government, he saw that Government could play a positive role in the lives of its citizens. As such, Paine should be almost revered by those who in today's environment are seeking such changes. From the Pennsylvania Journal, January 4, 1775[1], Paine penned the following article at a time that preceded the battles of Lexington and Concord and to a population of well-off individuals many of whom adhered to the necessity of slavery. It is worth understanding more of Paine in today's world.

 TO AMERICANS. 

That some desperate wretches should be willing to steal and enslave men by violence and murder for gain, is rather lamentable than strange. But that many civilized, nay, Christianized people should approve, and be concerned in the savage practice, is surprising; and still persist, though it has been so often proved contrary to the light of nature, to every principle of Justice and Humanity, and even good policy, by a succession of eminent men,∗ and several late publications. Our Traders in MEN (an unnatural commodity!) must know the wickedness of that SLAVE-TRADE, if they attend to reasoning, or the dictates of their own hearts; and such as shun and stifle all these, willfully sacrifice Conscience, and the character of integrity to that golden Idol. The Managers of that Trade themselves, and others, testify, that many of these African nations inhabit fertile countries, are industrious farmers, enjoy plenty, and lived quietly, averse to war, before the Europeans debauched them with liquors, and bribing them against one another; and that these inoffensive people are brought into slavery, by stealing them, tempting Kings to sell subjects, which they can have no right to do, and hiring one tribe to war against another, in order to catch prisoners. By such wicked and inhuman ways the English are said to enslave towards one hundred thousand yearly; of which thirty thousand are supposed to die by barbarous treatment in the first year; besides all that are slain in the unnatural wars excited to take them. So much innocent blood have the Managers and Supporters of this inhuman Trade to answer for to the common Lord of all! 

Many of these were not prisoners of war, and redeemed from savage conquerors, as some plead; and they who were such prisoners, the English, who promote the war for that very end, are the guilty authors of their being so; and if they were redeemed, as is alleged, they would owe nothing to the redeemer but what he paid for them. They show as little Reason as Conscience who put the matter by with saying—“Men, in some cases, are lawfully made Slaves, and why may not these?” So men, in some cases, are lawfully put to death, deprived of their goods, without their consent; may any man, therefore, be treated so, without any conviction of desert? Nor is this plea mended by adding—“They are set forth to us as slaves, and we buy them without farther inquiry, let the sellers see to it.” Such men may as well join with a known band of robbers, buy their ill-got goods, and help on the trade; ignorance is no more pleadable in one case than the other; the sellers plainly own how they obtain them. But none can lawfully buy without evidence that they are not concurring with Men-Stealers; and as the true owner has a right to reclaim his goods that were stolen, and sold; so the slave, who is proper owner of his freedom, has a right to reclaim it, however often sold…

As much in vain, perhaps, will they search ancient history for examples of the modern Slave-Trade. Too many nations enslaved the prisoners they took in war. But to go to nations with whom there is no war, who have no way provoked, without farther design of conquest, purely to catch inoffensive people, like wild beasts, for slaves, is an height of outrage against Humanity and Justice, that seems left by Heathen nations to be practiced by pretended Christians. How shameful are all attempts to colour and excuse it! As these people are not convicted of forfeiting freedom, they have still a natural, perfect right to it; and the Governments whenever they come should, in justice set them free, and punish those who hold them in slavery. So monstrous is the making and keeping them slaves at all, abstracted from the barbarous usage they suffer, and the many evils attending the practice; as selling husbands away from wives, children from parents, and from each other, in violation of sacred and natural ties; and opening the way for adulteries, incests, and many shocking consequences, for all of which the guilty Masters must answer to the final Judge. If the slavery of the parents be unjust, much more is their children’s; if the parents were justly slaves, yet the children are born free; this is the natural, perfect right of all mankind; they are nothing but a just recompense to those who bring them up: And as much less is commonly spent on them than others, they have a right, in justice, to be proportionably sooner free. 

Certainly one may, with as much reason and decency, plead for murder, robbery, lewdness, and barbarity, as for this practice: They are not more contrary to the natural dictates of Conscience, and feelings of Humanity; nay, they are all comprehended in it. But the chief design of this paper is not to disprove it, which many have sufficiently done; but to entreat Americans to consider. 

 1. With what consistency, or decency they complain so loudly of attempts to enslave them, while they hold so many hundred thousands in slavery; and annually enslave many thousands more, without any pretense of authority, or claim upon them? 2. How just, how suitable to our crime is the punishment with which Providence threatens us? We have enslaved multitudes, and shed much innocent blood in doing it; and now are threatened with the same. And while other evils are confessed, and bewailed, why not this especially, and publicly; than which no other vice, if all others, has brought so much guilt on the land?  3. Whether, then, all ought not immediately to discontinue and renounce it, with grief and abhorrence? Should not every society bear testimony against it, and account obstinate persisters in it bad men, enemies to their country, and exclude them from fellowship; as they often do for much lesser faults?  4. The great Question may be—What should be done with those who are enslaved already? To turn the old and infirm free, would be injustice and cruelty; they who enjoyed the labors of their better days should keep, and treat them humanely. As to the rest, let prudent men, with the assistance of legislatures, determine what is practicable for masters, and best for them. Perhaps some could give them lands upon reasonable rent, some, employing them in their labour still, might give them some reasonable allowances for it; so as all may have some property, and fruits of their labors at their own disposal, and be encouraged to industry; the family may live together, and enjoy the natural satisfaction of exercising relative affections and duties, with civil protection, and other advantages, like fellow men. Perhaps they might sometime form useful barrier settlements on the frontiers. Thus they may become interested in the public welfare, and assist in promoting it; instead of being dangerous, as now they are, should any enemy promise them a better condition…

These are the sentiments of

JUSTICE AND HUMANITY.

Regrettably few listened to Paine in 1775. Regrettably too was the defacing of Paine's statue in Morristown.

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[1] https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/paine-the-writings-of-thomas-paine-vol-i-1774-1779