The CDC reports the following set of stats:
Median number of days from death to reporting (interquartile range)¶¶
18-49 years: 19 (5, 45) days
50-64 years: 21 (6, 46) days
≥65 years: 19 (5, 44) days
This means that deaths may be reported 45 days after they occur! One of the most significant facts in control theory is that systems with reporting delays are inherently unstable. This has been a chronic problem we have commented on many times.
The fatality ratios are reported as:
0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054
From the Census we have:
Population percent under 18 is 22.3%
Population over 65 is 16.5%
Population over 18 and under 65 is 61.2%
The total population is 328 million
Thus:
Pop under 18 is 73 million
Pop over 65 is 54 million
Pop between is 201 million
Based upon the above the total mortality if everyone was infected would be:
Pop under 18 is 2,190
Pop over 65 is 2.9 million
Pop between is 201,000
These are estimated given the data between Census and CDC is NOT compatible. But it tells a story. The total deaths for those under say 70, would be about 202,000. Currently Hopkins reports some 200,000 or more deaths. It is fair to say that about half of them are the over 65 group and more than 50% of them have per-existing conditions.
Thus the elderly are the most concerned, the kids are just carriers with little risk and they pass it up to the middle group who are the major spreaders. If one could protect the elderly and those with per-existing then let the others do as they want, perhaps things are not that bad. Does anyone think this way?
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