Friday, October 16, 2020

NJ 2020 10 16

 Let us take a look at the hot spots. There is an increase but it is highly focused. First the county and town numbers. We see a one day blip but there is a rather constant daily incidence of some 40 cases per day for the county.

Below is the daily increase and we see again the noisy nature of the data. Thus any single day is meaningless.
The town prevalence is below. As I have repeatedly noted the schools not only allow but seem to mandate teen age clusters which are petri dishes. Yet the teenagers have mild is not obvious disease presentations but are voracious spreaders.
The county stats remain with three major clusters. Nothing much has changed.
Now Ocean county is grossly different. Here in Lakewood we have 10X Morris county's worst! Moreover the surrounding towns have massive spread.
This chart below is mortality rates. The highest in Manchester is over 16%! The same for all surrounding towns. Thus not only do we have high incidence but massive mortality rates!
You can see the location in the map below, it is a cluster around Lakewood.
The state cases are on the rise but for the most part driven by this cluster.
You can see Morris county remains flat.
Overall deaths are low, but dominated by this cluster.
The closer look below shows the more than doubling of daily incidence since mid June. It was relatively flat until the Lakewood cluster exploded.
Deaths continue in LTC facilities and again that is grossly unreasonable.