Monday, May 4, 2020

NJ 2020 05 04

Let's start with a FACT. According to the numbers there were a total of 1525 new positives. Of these, 1220 were in Nursing Homes! Thus there were only 305 new positives in NJ! If you believe any of these numbers! If this is true, even slightly, then we are now better than a measles outbreak.

Let us start with deaths. Remember it is Monday and these are the results left over from Sunday when nobody reports anything.
The drop is phenomenal. But most likely it is recklessly wrong! Now the key chart, if one wants to have any logic, is the following 14 day chart.
Yes we are still nicely on a down turn. Could someone tell the Gov or perhaps he has an alternative agenda. Or just clueless.
The above is NJ prevalence of existing contagious persons.
The above for Morris. At some point we will be back to normal. One also suspects we are below where we were two months ago when we did no testing. The problem is we are making poor comparisons since we now test more and find more. Thus it becomes a drag on the decline which is what we see in both charts. namely the slower decline is really artifact of the increased testing not a representation of the disease dynamics. But I guess that has not occurred to anyone.

The doubling time for Morris is above
The state doubling is above.

Overall we seem to be coming nicely out of this problem. I suspect Wednesday's deaths will again spike due to the nature of the incompetent reporting and everyone will be aghast again. Pity!

Sunday, May 3, 2020

NJ 2020 05 03

No surprise here. No body worked yesterday, it must be some old death certificates they added. Again for the "knuckleheads" in Trenton, this data is useless.
The 14 day average is negative now for 17 consecutive days. So how is the Three Card Monty game in Trenton folks. What metric are we supposed to use with the corrupted data provided? Please not I am complaining about the "facts".
the above is the total and the following is the percent change by date:
It is quite low.
The above is the summary chart showing we are well beyond the peak. BTW parks are open, only a few secreted parks however and only for select people. It reminds me of Moscow in 1978. Empty shelves, queues, compliant workers, and lots for the Party members. Just not enough vodka here.
The above is the doubling time for the county:
and the above for the state.
The state prevalence is above.

Overall, lacking robust testing, which seems to be far in the distance, we are doing just fine. We yet have any stats from the Gov on his "scientific" basis for opening. The irony is that in an interview with Wallace on Fox the Gov agreed to the fallacious statement which he already corrected that the highest death rate was this past week. One need look no further than the data to see the death rates are themselves fallacious. Clearly Wallace was clueless and spreading incorrect facts and the Gov negligently refused to correct him, in fact he agreed. Second Wallace says no state reached the 14 day window when there are two errors there. First as we have shown NJ has. Second it is not state by state but regions within a state. It is in my opinion based upon the limited facts we have that the Gov is grossly misrepresenting the state of the pandemic. It is regrettable that no one has entered the discussion using the data.

Saturday, May 2, 2020

NJ 2020 05 02

Let's start with the death numbers which we argue are recklessly wrong.
Now with 32 consecutive numbers we can do a FFT analysis as below:
This shows peaks at 5, 10, 15 days. Namely we have truly periodic data as we anticipated and the period is a work week and weekends off. Namely the data is useless!
The total is now leveling off as above:
The 14 day numbers for Morris remain well in the negative:
the doubling time for NJ is great
the doubling for Morris is fantastic
the prevalence of infected is dropping for the state
the prevalence for the county is now just over 0.2%. Let us understand what that means. It means we must interact with 500 people to have a chance of one being infectious. That is crowd level, shopping malls at Christmas, Football games with lots of beer calls.
The above shows a closing gap on those infected and infectious.

In conclusion it is time for selected openings based on data! Hello Trenton, is anyone home?

Coase, the Virus, and Rights


Coase had proposed an interesting Theorem. One way, I believe, to state it is:

In the case of an open and free market, independent of Government controls, free of transaction costs, an optimal distribution of "property" can be achieved directly or as a result of litigation.

Take the classic example of the railroad company and the farmer. The railroad company wants to have the cheapest costs to operate and the farmer wants to largest piece of land to cultivate. However in certain parts of the country at certain times of the year the train may emit sparks which in turn may result in a fire and burn down the farmers crops. The railroad has been granted an easement for the tracks while the farmer outright owns the land. So how shall we remedy this problem.

For Coase it is simply to let the farmer sue the railroad company at no cost. Thus the cost of the lost crops are mitigated by a payment from the railroad with no further intermediation. The costs are cleared locally and on a case by case basis.

A second approach is to have the Government come in with regulations and mandate that all railroads and farmers adhere to its rules. However, adhering to the rules may have significant externalities. All railroads must incur substantial overall costs, albeit forgoing any liabilities, and all farmers must lose putatively large acreages of useful growing land. The rules have substantial costs for all, not just for the cases where a problem may arise. Most importantly with Government mandated regulations, the costs are then imposed on everyone and the actions are taken whether they would be required or not. That is every railroad track, no matter on farmland or not, in summer or winter must adhere to the rules and bear the costs. The costs in turn are handed down to consumers. The benefits may accrue to the farmer be the farmer also will see costs resulting from increases in bringing products to market. Ultimately, however, each consumer will bear the burden.

Now consider a second issue, that of rights. The Founders were imbued with the construct of Natural Rights and the Constitution immortalizes these rights as part of the Bill of Rights. Any denial of any of these rights is looked upon very severely and Government has no open book options to seek baseless reasons to deny them. Thus a right of free speech, of the press, of assembly, of religion, to bear arms, search and seizure, trial by jury and a sacred part of our very existence as a people. Any attempt to deny them is a material breach of the duties of any Governmental individual.

Now add to this conversation the issue of the current COVID-19 virus, the virus. From a Coasian perspective one should allow individuals to litigate for damages. Namely if one is infected and one refuses to adhere to an appropriate protocol, then the other "individuals" so infected should be able to sue for damages at no transaction costs. Is this even possible? Frankly, yes. One can track the RNA virus as it mutates and identify the initial transmitter.

Unlike AIDS where people were terrified to do anything about the Patient Zero, who was well known and continued to infect people until he finally died, we can remedy this quickly. If someone infects another they are liable.

In contrast the non-Coasian way is Government regulation. This is the current heavy fisted manner in which state governments have suddenly grabbed massive powers, often abrogating fundamental Constitutional rights, and mandate draconian measures predicated on baseless data, stating, in an Orwellian manner, that it is "scientific". Ironically, these autocrats would not know a scientific fact if it landed on their nose, but alas, perforce of their election, they become imbued with all wisdom and powers.

Perhaps one could assume that by informing the populace of the danger, informing them how to avoid the danger, and testing to assess the prevalence, on can rely upon the willingness of most people to adhere to the precautions and not be overly restricted by draconian methods currently employed. For example, we tell people to wear seat belts, most do, those who do not often die in accidents. That is a quasi-Darwinian cleansing. We tell people not to smoke, those who choose to do so suffer the consequences. We tell people not to use drugs, for those who do consequences ensue. We tell people not to become obese, again, consequences and costs. Unfortunately in an externalities fashion in all of the above, there are costs that society as a who is charged. We pay for the consequences of obesity, drugs, driving, but we do so knowing that for almost all of us our freedoms under the Bill of Rights are sustained.

However, under the current circumstances we have had our rights absconded by politicians and in addition we are bearing an insurmountable cost. I suspect that there are alternatives to these measures akin to what we seen in the aforementioned. However we seem to be dominated by politicians and worse by academics. There are more Professors of this and that who opine from the security of their ivory tower, continuing to get their paycheck, spending time opining on the media while the mass of our citizens are suffering in drastic uncertainty of their very existence.

Is there thus a solution? Clearly in my opinion, not as an academic but hopefully as an adherent to our Constitution and an entrepreneur, tell people how to protect themselves, treat them with respect, especially our politicians who like to call us "knuckleheads" and manage the problem straightforwardly. Yes, there is a science under all of this, but we must beware of "false prophets" opining on baseless theories to obtain their "fifteen minutes".

At all extremes we must defend and preserve our rights under the Constitution. If we start to give them away we shall never get them back. Millions have fought to defend them. Millions will die if we lose them.

Friday, May 1, 2020

Data, Artifacts, and Just Plain Junk

As we have been stating for weeks now, the NJ data is highly corrupted, especially the deaths. Now the NY Times states:

Gov. Philip D. Murphy of New Jersey reported another 311 deaths from the coronavirus on Friday. It was a drop from Thursday, when the state reported 460 deaths. State health officials explained on Friday that the number of deaths reported on any given day includes many deaths that can go back weeks and are newly classified as virus-related. But Friday was the second straight day that New Jersey reported more deaths than New York, which has more than twice as many people. 

No, it is not twice the number of people. It is; we have no idea what this data is. The Gov alleges to use science to make decisions but science relies upon valid data. The New Jersey data is so corrupted and unreliable that it is unlikely the state will ever re-open. The Gov calls the citizens 

“knucklehead behavior....."

 We can say the same regarding the data. I am reminded of the Commission on the shuttle disaster and Feynman's simple analysis of the broken gasket, the O ring. The Commission of the Gov on the return to normal is composed in my opinion of a collection of political cronies, add to that the corrupt unreliable data and we have a recipe for disaster. We should be able to find a Feynman for this problem, for it seems there is none on this group.

Notwithstanding this, we must get real accurate and complete data. Otherwise we will be bemoaning the problem which does not exist, trust disappears, and the state collapses.

NJ 2020 05 01

To all you Marxists, Happy May Day, to the rest of us here is the data.
As usual the 14 day for the state and county is negative. So what is the Gov waiting for, one can only guess.
The above are the death stats. It should be noted that 3488 deaths of the total, almost 60% are in Nursing Homes, and 90% of the remaining are hypertensive, Type 2 Diabetes, obese, and CHD. The chance for a healthy person is almost inconsequential.
State prevalence is dropping and the county even more so as below:
The doubling times for the county are almost two months:
and the total is leveling: