NJ 2020 05 02

Let's start with the death numbers which we argue are recklessly wrong.

Now with 32 consecutive numbers we can do a FFT analysis as below:

This shows peaks at 5, 10, 15 days. Namely we have truly periodic data as we anticipated and the period is a work week and weekends off. Namely the data is useless!

The total is now leveling off as above:

The 14 day numbers for Morris remain well in the negative:

the doubling time for NJ is great

the doubling for Morris is fantastic

the prevalence of infected is dropping for the state

the prevalence for the county is now just over 0.2%. Let us understand what that means. It means we must interact with 500 people to have a chance of one being infectious. That is crowd level, shopping malls at Christmas, Football games with lots of beer calls.

The above shows a closing gap on those infected and infectious.

In conclusion it is time for selected openings based on data! Hello Trenton, is anyone home?