NJ 2020 05 18

Let us start with a worrisome one

The 14 day running average has gone positive for the first time in weeks. It is not clear what the reason is.

The new reports per day were high for Sunday and totally unrealistic change. It appears that Essex county had some massive daily increase which is unexplained.

The County did not so we may be seeing increases in the outlier counties in the south

As expected deaths were low due to Sunday reports but the negative trend holds.

and as usual they are half from LTC facilities

State prevalence shows the increase and this should be a concern in terms of targeting the places with such an increase

The County also shows a bit of a pop upward. We believe this is due to the fact that we are more than 14 days from the peak and we may be seeing a residual infection rate at the low end. This is common in such pandemics, and that residual may take time to die out, one way or the other. Also we may have this due to increased testing.