OK as we had anticipated a bunch of death certificates hit the database today. There were NOT 334 deaths yesterday! Trust me folks, since no one died Sunday, they just held on to Monday! The data is utter nonsense! We expect a few more peaks. There is also the question that some of these may be the result of changing the death certificates from months ago. Have you no shame folks.
This is the 14 day change data. It is doing great if you believe the data. Now a word on the daily incidence reports. Leek at the prevalence:
and for the county:
Now it is clear to me there are many effects represented here.
First, the number of tests were small at the beginning so the incidence is weighted much too low.
Second, the testing is extensive now but only for those with symptoms. So we still have a substantial bias.
Third, nowhere do we ever consider the False Negatives and False positives.
Fourth, there are a multiplicity of test types and sites. Nowhere do we consider the inter test variances.
Overall this is one of the most unscientific and unreliable data I have ever seen. No one seems to be speaking of this but our future and lives depend upon it.
Fifth, the characters at Univ Washington are using this in some linear regression fiasco to modify their projections. Garbage in Garbage out!
Sixth, and this is critical, I suspect that since there was little testing up front, the early incidence is under-represented in reality. Namely, I suspect that the actual incidence was much higher so that the "curve" is more flattened out and symmetric.
Seventh, and this is even more critical, none of the alleged "models" are phenomenological. That is they failed to reflect actual and most likely all physical phenomena, as well as bereft of any demographic and psychographic metrics. The models are more akin to econometric models which also for the most part a curve fitting ex-post facto models.
The above is the percent infected. I would suspect this is 10-50 time higher but alas I have no reliable data even for this.
The above is the doubling time. Looks great.
The above is the new per day counts for Morris County and the town. Note the peaks again, no data on weekends.
The above is the town prevalence dominated by Nursing Homes. In that regard there were 141 Nursing Home deaths and 211 total, meaning 70 deaths were reported in general population.
Finally, these two were fined by the Police today for failure to wear a mask and failure to social distance. The fellow on the left complained that he could not find a mask to fit over his beak but the police then tased him and dragged him into the town jail for failure to respect authority.
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