Thursday, May 28, 2020

Pure Speculation?

How does the virus of COVID-19 spread? One would think that as a scientist one would base it upon some well defined and repeatable experiment. Along comes some atmospheric scientist who purports to know the answer.

In and interview in Medscape they state:

Something has been bothering (this person): everything she reads about COVID-19 points to a pathogen that travels through the air.There's how quickly it has spread around the world, studies showing how it spreads through restaurants (maybe by the air conditioning system?), how it attacked a church choir even though they were spread apart while they were singing, how it seems to spread like wildfire on planes and on cruise ships; all of this, she says, ...should know. ...studies aerosols — particles so tiny they float freely through the air, traveling feet or even miles....runs a large, government-funded research center at the University of California San Diego to study how viruses and other things that come out of the ocean float through the air. "A lot of the evidence has been pointing to aerosol transmission of respiratory viruses," she says. Influenza can be passed through the air, as can the virus that causes SARS. "This particular virus, a lot of evidence is mounting." ...says she's been alarmed not to see the CDC or WHO come out with a strong statement that people could catch COVID-19 by breathing it in. "It's just shocking to me, quite honestly, that this has not been factored in." And she believes masks can play a major role in stopping that transmission.

In the Science article written by these folks they state:

Aerosol transmission of viruses must be acknowledged as a key factor leading to the spread of infectious respiratory diseases. Evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2 is silently spreading in aerosols exhaled by highly contagious infected individuals with no symptoms. Owing to their smaller size, aerosols may lead to higher severity of COVID-19 because virus-containing aerosols penetrate more deeply into the lungs It is essential that control measures be introduced to reduce aerosol transmission. A multidisciplinary approach is needed to address a wide range of factors that lead to the production and airborne transmission of respiratory viruses, including the minimum virus titer required to cause COVID-19; viral load emitted as a function of droplet size before, during, and after infection; viability of the virus indoors and outdoors; mechanisms of transmission; airborne concentrations; and spatial patterns. More studies of the filtering efficiency of different types of masks are also needed. COVID-19 has inspired research that is already leading to a better understanding of the importance of airborne transmission of respiratory disease.

 Now if one reads this final statement it is hardly dispositive. The entire article is speculative relying on bits and pieces of other speculative statements. I have written speculative pieces but I clearly indicate they are speculative. We really do not know. Nor apparently does this individual in my opinion.

The assertions are not based on any first hand reproducible experiments. There is no direct research performed demonstrating intensity of transmission, comparison between methods etc.

Yet in my opinion individuals like this do a gross disservice to science, they make it into an opinion business not a fact business.