Friday, May 22, 2020

What is a Fact?

The latest flap is how the virus spreads. CBS and its medical reporters state:

CDC says COVID-19 not caught easily from surfaces and 40% of transmission occurs before people feel sick...The Centers for Disease Control updated its guidance earlier this month to emphasize the coronavirus does not spread easily on surfaces, focusing more on human-to-human transmission. And new planning documents from the CDC contain more of its estimates about the transmission of the virus. Touching surfaces and objects is now listed under the heading, "The virus does not spread easily in other ways" on the CDC web page. Earlier, "Contaminated surfaces and objects" had appeared on the web page as a separate heading — just as "Person-to-person spread" does —even though the CDC does not believe that the virus spreads easily from surfaces and objects.

Now what the CDC actually says is:  

 The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person. Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet). Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks.  These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs. COVID-19 may be spread by people who are not showing symptoms. The virus spreads easily between people: How easily a virus spreads from person-to-person can vary. Some viruses are highly contagious, like measles, while other viruses do not spread as easily. Another factor is whether the spread is sustained, which means it goes from person-to-person without stopping. The virus that causes COVID-19 is spreading very easily and sustainably between people. Information from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic suggest that this virus is spreading more efficiently than influenza, but not as efficiently as measles, which is highly contagious. The virus does not spread easily in other ways...COVID-19 is a new disease and we are still learning about how it spreads. It may be possible for COVID-19 to spread in other ways, but these are not thought to be the main ways the virus spreads. From touching surfaces or objects. It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes. This is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads, but we are still learning more about this virus.

Now this statement has not have a basis in fact as per the CDC. It is just stated. There is no scientific backup despite the fact that the CDC has references to paper showing surface transmission is significant. Thus parsing the CDCs, in my opinion, recklessly poorly worded statement tends to give comfort to touching whatever and feeling invulnerable. Try a NYC subway, I would think not.The actual fact is that there is at this time a great deal of uncertainty in how it spreads. After having read through some 2,000+ papers clarity on transmission is still an open question. If the CDC believes this statement then they owe it to people to present their evidence based upon peer reviewed open trials. Otherwise the Press will spin it whatever way they want and people are placed in harms way.