First we look at the population and then the employment base as used to determine the percent unemployed. We see that using the data from DoL as on the St Louis FED site we observe that the base has been declining. It should remain a percent of the total population. Namely we should see the possible base of all employable people remaining as a constant percent, in the short run, of the population. It is not, is is being ratcheted down.
Now look at the following:
The above is the percent changes calculated based upon the data. It has changed.
Now if we keep it constant we get the following result.
And thus the unemployment using this uniform scaling is 12% not 9.5%. It does not include those who have left the workforce. These are also seasonally adjusted data.
It is worth the calculation.
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