First the GDP comparisons. We show it below. The rate of return to normal has slowed the Q2 portion as compared to those before. The GDP stats are still in the lower half of the GDP returns for prior recessions. There is a concern that the GDP may drop down in Q3 and Q4.
Personal Consumption has been the major issue here. We show the results below and we see that it is at or below all prior recessions. Part of the problem is unemployment and part is the dramatic uncertainty on the part of the consumer. In a walk around to small business owners in the past month it is clear that consumers are not returning in any great way and this is reflected below. Consumer confidence is at an all time low.
Private investment is on par with average past recessions. That may be a leading indicator of the confidence by some business entities. One suspects it is the larger companies because the smaller ones are still have great difficulty in credit.
Government consumption is on average which is surprising compared to the massive infusion of funds. This begs the question as to where the money is going.
Exports have exploded due to the favorability of the dollar. They are driving up the GDP.
Whereas imports seem to be on a median level.
The big concern is the lack of consumer confidence despite other stats showing the opposite. There is also the concern as to the return of another down period.
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