Recession Statistics: Latest Numbers and Commentary

We have provided an update of the Recession Stats from St Louis FED. We will provide the data and then a Table summarizing it. Overall we are lagging well behind almost all prior Recessions and this may also indicate a second dip, there are early signs present.

First the four economic indicators:







































































Now we also show the GDP elements:

GDP = C + I + G + NX

These we show below:

The GDP changes are as follows:



















The Consumption is as follows:



















The Investment is as follows:



















Government Spending is:



















Exports:



















And finally Imports are:



















Finally our summary and observations:



















We should observe that the recovery is weak and one can say very weak. It is not clear if we will experience a double dip. The confusion and conflict in Washington is leading to further weakening whereas the European situation may be stabilizing. China may face a bubble effect itself which may set off the second dip.

In a strange way Brazil in 2010 is akin to Argentina in 1910. A strong economy with cash from extraction. The stability of the Government will also be a concern.