They state:
Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 125,000 in June, and the unemployment rate edged down to 9.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The decline in payroll employment reflected a decrease (-225,000) in the number of temporary employees working on Census 2010. Private-sector payroll employment edged up by 83,000....Both the number of unemployed persons, at 14.6 million, and the unemployment rate, at 9.5 percent, edged down in June.
The data on the Romer Curve is shown below, the actual estimates and facts and the error stats.
The error is as follows:
Our problem is that these numbers look a bit off, employment total dropped but the rate went down. We will be doing a separate analysis on this discrepancy later.
As to the details, we show the April 2005 distribution versus the June 2010 distribution in labor below. This is the telling charts since it shows how the mix of our economy is changing.
Note the percentages. Ed and Health is 12% and Government is 16%. The total is 28%. Now look at the latest.
E&H is 15% and Govt is 17% for a total of 32%. That is a 15% increase in that sector! Goods producing and Construction are still way down.
Finally we present the changes. This is below:
The Govt sector got rid of Census people but the one interesting light is the continuing growth of Professionals.
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