NJ 2021 08 31

 Approaching Labor Day we see the ever increasing infections. This is worse than what is reported since more than 72% of the populations is either vaccinated or previously infected. Thus any numbers we see should be multiplied by at least 4 to compare to last year. 

Let us start with the town prevalence. This is absolute and not relative to the unprotected. For the tow we should multiply by almost 10 since 90% are vaccinated or previously infected. This is a massive infection rate.

The county still is increasing whereas the town is decreasing in absolute numbers. In the town we are slowly running out of unprotected people. So much for the herd immunity concept. It was a purely academic construct anyhow.

The town doubling time is increasing which is good news.

But across the county we still have a multiple set of towns with low doubling times.

Death rates across the state are increasing. We still have almost a dozen a week dying in LTC facilities. One should ask how can this occur! The death rate for other than LTC is 1.6%, a worrisome number.

Doubling time for the state is flattening.

We can see this in state numbers

and in county numbers

 

Deaths are still flat but rates are increasing

State prevalence is peaking but remember one must multiply by 4! Thus we are worse now than ever before given the vulnerable base!

County prevalence is the same

Usine the extremely questionable CDC numbers we see the ration of infections to vulnerable base we are still high

Incremental vaccinations are higher but no where at the desired level

Finally the comparison curve reflects the data problem but an increase in vaccinations.

Farewell to a Mentor and Good Friend

In 1980 I received an offer to go from DC to Warner Cable in New York to work for Gus Hauser, the Chairman. As one who always looked at challenges and being from NY to begin with, and frankly fed up with Washington, I took the opportunity. I did not know Mr. Hauser nor did I have much knowledge of cable. In fact almost all my previous adventures had been in DoD and related fields. So off I went to 75 Rock on the 24th floor. 

Gus taught me more each day than one could learn in a lifetime at the typical American company. He had the uncanny ability to see through the mesh of data and numbers and identify the nub of an issue and its remedy. I think I picked up a bit of that talent over the years.

For 40 years we worked from one project to another. After Cable Gus and I got together on a satellite adventure, Orion, then a wireless adventure, then an international fiber adventure. Each time his insight was invaluable.

But at Warner he had developed QUBE, a two way cable data service that allowed some on line shopping and entertainment. He asked me to upgrade this concept. From that effort in 1982 my team delivered the first two way full motion video on demand system that was called TIES. It was a transaction, information and entertainment system, Amazon but 15 years earlier. We used a variety of early PCs, QUBE modems, and video disc storage. We had a JV with Bank of America, GTE, DEC and Bell Atlantic. Then unfortunately Warner had problems and we were spun out. But as noted it was Gus' idea made real.

After the fiber company I had the honor of helping Gus on many of his philanthropic adventures, applying broadband fiber in education and public service, expanding it to health care just as it was needed in the recent pandemic. 

Gus was a true man of honor and grace, a thinker and doer whose ongoing success was a beacon for many others to follow. I had the privilege to maintain this friendship up to the final days, albeit limited by the pandemic. 

As I built companies across the globe I believe I sent forth many Hauserisms, ways of doing things right and for the right reasons, that meant Gus' legend will live on  in the best actions of many people. The world is a much better place in many ways for Gus having been a part of it. Farewell good friend.

Delta Variant

 Nature has an interesting piece regarding the aggressiveness of the Delta variant. They note:

other groups have zeroed in on a mutation that alters a single amino acid in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein — the viral molecule responsible for recognizing and invading cells. The change, which is called P681R and transforms a proline residue into an arginine, falls within an intensely studied region of the spike protein called the furin cleavage site. The presence of this short string of amino acids set off alarm bells when SARS-CoV-2 was first identified in China, because it is associated with heightened infectivity in other viruses such as influenza, but had not previously been found in other sarbecoviruses, the family of coronaviruses to which SARS-CoV-2 belongs. “This little insert sticks out and hits you in the face,” says Gary Whittaker, a virologist at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York.

 Here is what happens:

Now proline is a special case amino acid with no charge. Arginine is a positively charged molecule which adds to the binding potential. They continue

To penetrate cells, the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein must be cut twice by host proteins. In the SARS-CoV-1 virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), both incisions occur after the virus has locked on to a cell. But with SARS-CoV-2, the presence of the furin cleavage site means that host enzymes (including one called furin) can make the first cut as newly formed viral particles emerge from an infected cell. These pre-activated viral particles can then go on to infect cells more efficiently than do particles requiring two cuts, says Whittaker.

The furin cut point has been the concern about a man made virus. Namely allowing this furin cut enables mutations that can become more aggressive rather than less.  

It is for this reason that a vaccine including this spike variant is essential now. This demands Government leadership which unfortunately seems grossly lacking. Frankly it is a 20 min lab experiment, so why not do it! Before the next variant emerges. Or it may already be here and even worse.

It is a shame given what we know and what we can do.

NJ 2021 08 21

 Here we go. As you will see things are NOT really better. But we can explain why. However as usual we have grossly incompetent Public Health management which could have driven this to ground. But alas we do not.

Let us start with the demographics on vaccinations. The most noted is the increase in Black vaccinations. 

 

However the age vaccines are shocking. The 30-49 age group is where the most infections are occurring and at the same time the lowest vaccinations. These folks really do not understand the sequellae they are exposing themselves to.

The increase in County per day is massive. When you see that 80% of the total PoP are vaccinated then the real number is 5 times what we see below if one compares.

The state has the same increase.

The doubling time still decreases and is going down to where we were at the low point last fall!

However the death rate is about 0.5%, twice that of a bad flu. That is because we have gotten to the most vulnerable. However many in that low age group are morbidly obese, T2 diabetes, etc.

Thus we still see a death per day which could be avoided.

County prevalence is high

as is the State prevalence

The incremental national vaccinations have slowly started upwards

However we still lag as infections increase. I suspect nationally we have similar issues.

Infections normalized may have peaked but I would not bet on that

Town incidence is still increasing. Again it is highest amongst the 30-40 age group. Town Government is grossly incompetent in dealing with this.

The county and town show similar increases

Any incidence per PoP over 5% should be a concern. Here we show a lot of clusters.

Dover has managed to control the infections. Anything below 500 should be a concern. Anything below 200 is a crisis.

The town doubling is as below. Note it is heading to 200!

Fighting the Last War

 The vaccine approach is to use the mRNA sequence for the spike protein on the initial viral sequence. Along comes the Delta variant. We know the details of that variant, namely the mRNA of its spike. It differs a bit. BUT, instead of adding this mRNA to the vaccines to combat COVID head on we are relying on the original spike to hopefully keep us safe! 

This is akin to fighting the last war. The spikes will be changing continuously but we are more than six months in and no progress. Axios has noted:

In a statement, Pfizer said it and BioNTech "expect to be able to develop and produce a tailor-made vaccine against that variant in approximately 100 days after a decision to do so, subject to regulatory approval."

 So what is holding you up. Well first the original vaccines needs FDA approval. Perhaps we can get help from the Taliban in how to move quickly? The FDA seems constipated on the original approval. Second, like flu vaccines, a new mRNA, with six nucleotide changes, out of 3,000, gets us there. It is a 20 min labe exercise for a college Junior. I suspect we can treat this virus as we do flu viruses with annual boosters tracking the ever changing variants. 

The issues is that no one is talking about this amongst the herd of experts in DC. Pity!

NJ 2021 08 14

 Let us begin with town stats. We have:

64% of all ages

73% >18

90% >30

100%>65

which is not a bad set of data. But, we still see 3-6 cases per day with no explanation. For the >30 set it should be near zero. Is this the <18 set? Schools? No clue. Par for the course from our grossly incompetent Public Health folks. Now for the data. The doubling time is low but possibly flat.

Both county and town show slight increases in trends

The incidence is well above 25 which given the immunization would mean 5 to 6 times that pre vaccine. That would mean we are well above the peak from last winter! Again Public Health folks, what is going on and where!

State new infections shows first downward trend

as does the county

Deaths are still somewhat flat with the death rate amongst non-LTC at about 0.8%

State prevalence is still increasing, given the 5:1 multiple it exceeds that of last year's peak!

same for the county

Nationally we have the ever increasing rate on those vulnerable exceeding any previous data from this administration.

vaccinations show a modest increase.

Some Questions on COVID

 The following are questions I hear frequently. We have some answers and we still have gaps.

1.     What is COVID

2.     How Does it Infect the Human

3.     Are all Humans the Same Regarding COVID Infections

4.     How Does it Replicate

5.     What Damage Does COVID Do

6.     What is a Vaccine

7.     What are Antibodies

8.     What are Memory T Cells

9.     How Does the Vaccine Work

10.  What are the different types of vaccines

11.  What are the adverse effects of the vaccines and why

12.  Who may be at risk taking the vaccine

13.  If I am vaccinated can I still get COVID

14.  If I am vaccinated can I still infect others

15.  Do vaccines cause or enhance certain auto immune disorders

16.  Are Immunocompromised individuals at risk from the vaccine

17.  Is the risk to immunocompromised individuals higher from the vaccine or from the virus

18.  How Long Does a Vaccine Immunity Last

19.  Why Does the FDA Take so Long to Approve the Vaccine

20.  What Are Possible Sequellae to Infection

21.  How can COVID be Treated

22.  What are Possible Sequellae to Vaccines

23.  What is a Variant

24.  How are Variants Created

25.  How Does Vaccine Deal with a Variant

26.  How Can Variants be Eliminated

27.  Should there be Booster Immunizations on a Periodic Basis

28.  Can the vaccines be adjusted for the different variants

29.  Why is the variant adjusted vaccines not of prime concern

30.  Is there Herd Immunity

31.  What is Natural Immunity

32.  How is COVID Transfered

33.  Do Masks Work

34.  Why does the CDC not provide prompt and comprehensive data on the pandemic

35.  Why does the FDA appear to be so ineffective under the current administration as compared to the previous one

Vaccines

 Last year was a year of small miracles regarding vaccine development. The mRNA vaccines are well targeted and well tolerated. The slow uptake, however, combined with uncontrolled inward migration with infected individuals creates a petri dish for mutations and variants. This becomes a direct threat to even those who were vaccinated.

Now we also fortunately know that the spike protein is an excellent target for the immune system. It works and is highly efficacious. However if we have more variants we need more updates to the vaccine. The mRNA should not include all of the dominant variants. Like flu shots, we can track the variants and modify and update the vaccines.

However the current administrations sees grossly deficit in performing this task. We are skimming along with the vaccine success of the past administration while the current appear lax in what is now a simple and necessary update.

The focus on masks distracts from the real solution, updated vaccines. The FDA without any form of aggressive and assertive leadership is at fault for not approving the current vaccine, a year after its trials and hundreds of millions already immunized.

We need three simple things from Government:

1. FDA approval of the mRNA vaccine, especially as it effects the deployment of variant based mRNAs

2. The aggressive testing and tracking of mRNA vaccine variants, now, not to wait!

3. The focus on vaccination and let the mask issue play itself out. 

It is necessary for some leadership in the current administration and less pandering to egos. There is a small window of opportunity before we find ourselves back to ground zero. We must get variant based mRNA vaccines out now.

Thought I would Check

 The current meme is that the Trump supporters are the ones not getting vaccinated. So I thought I would look at some towns here in New Jersey and see what the facts were. Strange things, facts, they do not support the memes of the day. 

So here goes:

First I plotted the towns by the margin Trump won by in 2020. Somewhat of a mix but it does tell a tale by itself.

Now I plotted the towns with their respective vaccinate rates by age brackets. I also added Democrat stronghold towns at the end to compare. At the very least there is no difference and at the most the Democrat towns are lower.

I repeated this below. This shows a better example of lower Democrat vaccinations.

So much for memes and Facts!

NJ 2021 08 07

 We are in the middle of the summer and things are not going well. It is a day shy of 200 for the new administration and success is not near at hand. 

First vaccinations are not going well. There seems to be a slight increase and frankly the confusion of messages is in my opinion the cause. From "knuckleheads" in New Jersey to "C'mon man" from the White House they are no FDR.  The chart below will get confused since the CDC does not work weekends and Monday we will see a blip. Imagine WW II where the Navy took weekends off.

The normalized incidence has exploded. Now we have 71% of the population with one vaccination and the "herd" folks said it would die off. Herd, Schmerd! Never believed that one.

Looking at both with 7 day averages we get the following. Not a happy picture, we are back in January. BUT, and this is critical, 70% of the people over 12 are vaccinated first time so the pool for infection is 30%. That means the relative infection rate is 4 times that of January! And given the pool of unvaccinated is under 50, mostly 12-30, the problem is very focused.

Here is the town prevalence. It is rising again. 100% over 65 are vaccinated totally but the wandering teenagers keep getting infected and spread. I truly wonder how many were NOT tested!

Tow in flat but county is rising. The irony is that Dover and other Hispanic areas have it under control, it now seems to be affluent suburban kids!

The town doubling time is high but fluctuates.

County prevalence is rising to where it was in April.

State prevalence is the same but the rate of increase is the highest ever!

However deaths are quite low, not unreasonable given the infected pool.

County infected per day is rising substantially

as is the State

Finally the State doubling time is above the peak during 2020 but still declining.