We are in the middle of the summer and things are not going well. It is a day shy of 200 for the new administration and success is not near at hand.
First vaccinations are not going well. There seems to be a slight increase and frankly the confusion of messages is in my opinion the cause. From "knuckleheads" in New Jersey to "C'mon man" from the White House they are no FDR. The chart below will get confused since the CDC does not work weekends and Monday we will see a blip. Imagine WW II where the Navy took weekends off.
The normalized incidence has exploded. Now we have 71% of the population with one vaccination and the "herd" folks said it would die off. Herd, Schmerd! Never believed that one.
Looking at both with 7 day averages we get the following. Not a happy picture, we are back in January. BUT, and this is critical, 70% of the people over 12 are vaccinated first time so the pool for infection is 30%. That means the relative infection rate is 4 times that of January! And given the pool of unvaccinated is under 50, mostly 12-30, the problem is very focused.
Here is the town prevalence. It is rising again. 100% over 65 are vaccinated totally but the wandering teenagers keep getting infected and spread. I truly wonder how many were NOT tested!
Tow in flat but county is rising. The irony is that Dover and other Hispanic areas have it under control, it now seems to be affluent suburban kids!
The town doubling time is high but fluctuates.
County prevalence is rising to where it was in April.
State prevalence is the same but the rate of increase is the highest ever!
However deaths are quite low, not unreasonable given the infected pool.
County infected per day is rising substantially
as is the State
Finally the State doubling time is above the peak during 2020 but still declining.
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