Modelling of this virus is useless. However current numbers can make sense. Let us use today's number for New Jersey and do a back of the envelope calculation.
1. NJ has about 8+ million people
2. 75% of the 50+ is vaccinated and more than 60% of the 20+.
3. Then we have 12% of the population already immune because of infection.
4. Thus we have about 75% of the total population immune
5. Now we see 1,000 new infections per day. These are from about 2 million people.
6. If those 2 million never get immune they remain the open pool and we can assume the 1,000 pd remains if not grows.
7. We always said there is no herd immunity. So by the end of this year we may be seeing upwards of 2,000 pd or a total in excess of 200,000 new infections
8. The death rate is 2% so we will see 4,000 new deaths.
9. We may see this pd rate continue through the winter and by next year see some total of 500,000 new infections and some 10,000 more deaths in NJ
10 Now The Hill quotes the spokesperson stating:
Chief White House medical adviser Anthony Fauci on Wednesday said the U.S. could see up to 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases in the fall. “Remember, just a couple of months ago, we were having about 10,000 cases a day,” Fauci told McClatchy in an interview. “I think you’re likely going to wind up somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 cases.” Fauci’s prediction comes as the U.S. is experiencing a surge in cases while health officials are struggling to convince individuals to get vaccinated.
Regrettably he may be optimistic. Masks are back in everywhere in NJ despite a prevalence which is miniscule in many counties. Infections peak in certain hot spots and it we had any competent Public Health officials data would drive strategy. We don't.
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