As we have been examining the COVID incidence numbers for almost two years now we are at a point here in NJ where we should have no new infections. However as we have noted they continue at an amazing rate. Why? Are the vulnerable all clustered and infecting the remaining numbers? Or, as I found out anecdotally today, these are predominantly breakthrough infections. Namely the vaccine is good but not that good. There are a class of people who get infected and 2-3% of them die.
It would be nice to know the reinfection or breakthrough rates. But neither the State and especially not the CDC even acknowledge them. These are critical numbers. If the vaccine is 98% effective then in NJ we have a pool of 200,000 vulnerable people. Is that pool enough to give the rates of infection we are seeing?
Or is it politically incorrect to even state the facts! That seems to be all the case here.
In JAMA they note:
The current surge in infections with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has made it clear to health care workers and the public alike that fully vaccinated people remain at risk for SARS-CoV-2 infections. It is also apparent that breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated people can sometimes be serious. As of October 21, 2021, for example, 35% of the 519 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Massachusetts
had been fully vaccinated.1 Furthermore, multiple reports have documented that if fully vaccinated individuals do become infected, their viral loads may be as high as the levels seen in unvaccinated individuals.2 In July 2021, these observations led the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to modify its guidance for fully vaccinated people, advising that those in communities with substantial or high SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates should wear masks indoors regardless of their vaccination status.
This fact regarding breakthrough infections has been pushed under the rug. The article does continue:
Vaccines not only decrease transmission rates, but also decrease disease severity among individuals who do acquire infection. Vaccinated people with breakthrough infections, including infection with the Delta variant, are less likely to develop symptoms, less likely to develop severe symptoms, more likely to recover from their illness quickly, and much less likely to require hospitalization compared with unvaccinated people.8,12 As of August 28, 2021, the age-adjusted rate of hospitalization among US adults aged 18 years or older was 83.6 per 100 000 for unvaccinated persons compared with 4.5 per 100 000 for fully vaccinated persons.
But consider the following conclusion. If 90% of the people are vaccinated then we would have about 300,000,000 vaccinated people. Then we would expect say 5% infections via breakthrough or 15,000,000 infections. On the other hand with 10% of the population unvaccinated there would be say 30,000,000 people and say 80% infected or 24,000,000. Now the numbers are comparable.
So what do we really have? And even more so, are the numbers really worse? Finally can we ever see an end via vaccines or must we just treat the disease?
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