Some visitors

 Here are the turkeys:

And bobcat

16 Years

 I started this blog some 16 years ago. I have seen many changes and events over that period:

I started with the economy in 2008. It was the banking collapse. Our Government poured trillions to stop the problem. A simple and avoidable problem. It was the making of the Government allowing loans on inflated real estate with the lack of ability to repay. Rolling up junk into bigger piles of junk until it collapsed.

Then there was Obamacare. By itself just added costs for healthcare for those unable to afford it. But as usual excess costs. But the real problem is it opened the gates for those seeking nationalized healthcare. A possible disaster but it raised its head.

Then we got the plague, COVID, just five years ago. It demonstrated the gross incompetence and political corruptness of our Government. We still do not have an effective vaccine nor an effective therapeutic nor do we really know its transmission path. Men with beards wearing masks are oxymorons! Physicians doing so a worse than reckless.

Now we are in the era of massive social change. Some of the most absurd demands by small segments in attempts to dominate all others.

It is interesting to watch this change, yet some time frightening.

Simple Trigonometry

 In an article on The Hill, a former Jan 6 Panel member asserts and alleges:

 ... a former military pilot, said Sunday that all of the mysterious drone sightings he has seen video of have been airplanes. “Honestly, every video I’ve seen — and I’ve spent the last couple of days looking at every one of these videos — every video I have seen on Twitter, on the internet, are all airplanes. They’re literally all airplanes,” ...  “Some of them will show an airplane that’s kind of stable out there and says that’s a drone, and actually, it’s an airplane flying towards you at 30,000 feet. And I can see the lighting on it.”“If any of these pictures that they have shown are actual drones, these drones then are complying with FAA lighting requirements: a green on the right, a red on the left with a strobe,”

 OK I am not a pilot, I have however designed and deployed various identification and tracking systems over the years. I also did well in Trigonometry. So my NJ sighting was at 1.5 km and at an angle they yielded about 400 ft elevation. Low angle. Namely tangent of angle equals elevation divided by distance. Thus this was no flight into Newark nor one into Morristown airport. You see I am on the flight paths of both! In addition one can track all arriving and departing EWR flight real time on line. I even track by radio from FAA flight control.

So the above statement is in my opinion baseless. Do I believe this person or my lying eyes, and trig table!

Vaccines

 In a recent note in Science they discussed the facts that COVID vaccines have limited effectiveness as compared to other vaccines. They note:

Neither vaccinations nor immunity from infections seem to thwart SARS-CoV-2 for long. The frequency of new infections within a few months of a previous bout or a shot is one of COVID-19’s most vexing puzzles. Now, scientists have learned that a little-known type of immune cell in the bone marrow may play a major role in this failure. The study, which appeared last month in Nature Medicine, found that people who received repeated doses of vaccine, and in some cases also became infected with SARS-CoV-2, largely failed to make special antibody-producing cells called long-lived plasma cells (LLPCs). “That’s really, really interesting,” says Mark Slifka, an immunologist at the Oregon Health & Science University who was not involved with the work. The study authors say their finding may indicate a way to make better COVID-19 vaccines: by altering how they present the spike surface protein of SARS-CoV-2 to a person’s immune cells. Durability is an age-old bugaboo of vaccine designers. Some vaccines, particularly ones made from weakened versions of viruses, can protect people for decades, even life. Yet others lose effectiveness within months. “We really haven’t overcome this challenge,” says Akiko Iwasaki, a Yale University immunologist who is developing a nasal COVID-19 vaccine she hopes can be given often enough to get around the durability problem.

 My 1944 smallpox immunity still works as does my 1953 polio. However my mRNA COVID kind of lasts six months at best. The observation noted above about immune cell surface proteins, receptors, has merit. However the flu shots last about six months. Perhaps the mutation rate of single stranded mRNA viruses is at fault.

One suspects dramatic changes in vaccines now that we have a window to their operations.

Drones

 OK, I live in Morris County NJ, home of the drones. So last night I went out to see if there were any. Well in no time I picked up 2 on my high quality binoculars. One was about 1 km away at about 500 ft. Blinking red, green, clearly a drone. It was on the Chatham/Florham Park border following the high power distribution lines. Track it for 5 min. Can't miss these things. 

They are on the approach to Morristown Airport thus creating a clear and present danger to aircraft. So much for the fools at the FAA and DoT. They are threats to that at least. Also they are large. What if they fall...NJ is densest population state and they would take out quite a few people.

Now our State officials and our Federal officials seem clueless! No surprise here, these are the same folks who did COVID management.

Hopefully the new Administration feels more akin with people instead of just handing out pardons.

Another Reason to Avoid the UK

 

I recall back a few years when I tired to do a tour at Buckingham Palace, I had a free morning, I was triple searched. Afterall I am Irish, by ancestry, and also by citizenship. Now as the NY Times notes, besides your passport you need a new approval. Specifically:

Travelers from the United States, Canada and dozens of other countries who do not require visas to enter the United Kingdom will soon need to apply for digital authorization in order to visit or transit through the country. The electronic travel authorization, called ETA and linked to a traveler’s passport, costs 10 pounds, or around $13, and lasts two years. The requirement was introduced about a year ago for nationals of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and four other Gulf nations and will extend to more than 40 visa-exempt countries starting Jan. 8. It will eventually apply to all visa-exempt travelers wishing to visit the United Kingdom, including those from the European Union.

Many times I transited London. I really never liked the UK, and I suspect I would dislike it even more today. But this added issue makes it unbearable. I ended up transiting via Frankfurt, the Germans are more efficient and much less abusive, if one can image such. Paris is great but transit is tough. Copenhagen is nice but small. 

One wonders why they did this. In the US I could see, we have already too many rules and Government employees. Perhaps it may get a bit better.

More Nonsense

 

The eyes have lacrimal sacs which drain tears. Tears keep eye surface clear and the meibomian glans supply a oil like substance over the water to keep it from evaporating. The lacrimal sac starts at the nasal side of the eye and ends in the nasopharynx on its way to the lungs. Nice path for virus to get into a person. Frequently the major way. I discussed this five years ago. 

Now masks at best cover the nose and mouth. The nose can be an entry point but not as good as the eye surfaces. The eye surfaces are larger and are impacted by viral entities.

Now along comes a Nature article favoring masks. The authors assert:

What would have happened if everyone in the United Kingdom had worn high-grade masks during the COVID-19 pandemic? A modelling study has estimated just how sharply transmission might have dropped. Determining the effect of masks on viral transmission is difficult, and most studies so far have been affected by limitations such as small sample sizes. To overcome this issue, Richard Sear at the University of Surrey, UK, developed a model of transmission using data from the UK National Health Service COVID-19 app. The app, which ran on mobile phones between 2020 and 2023, logged information about infections and the length of time users came into contact with each other. Sear built on a previously published analysis of 240,000 positive COVID-19 tests and 7 million contacts — instances in which app users were notified that they had been exposed to the virus. He estimated that if everyone in the United Kingdom had worn N95 or FFP2 masks — both highly effective at filtering particles — the rate of COVID-19 transmission would have dropped by a factor of 9.

This is utter nonsense. The eyes, never covered by masks, are  the primary surface for contact and transmission. For example, dacryocystitis is a common disorder of an inflamed lacrimal sac. But it also is prima facie proof of entry. I argue that we still have no idea as to the actual transmission mechanism; nano, micro etc. But we do know that the lacrimal sac is a wonder means for viruses caught on the "fly paper" of the eyes tpo get to the respiratory system.

Five years later and we still see such nonsense!

More on Attack Drones

 As I noted earlier, tracking objects such as drones requires some form of identifiable profile. Such things as reflections of microwave signals, noise, heat, electromagnetic emanations, atmospheric disturbances such as micro turbulence and the like. For the past eighty years or in some cases more we have had systems to perform such detection. The question now is why do we not have the ability to track auto sized objects controlled by EM signals? 

On suggestion is to used phased array antennae and RF, or even acoustic. Another is to look to turbulence from the propellers, micro turbulence but measurable. Then track them and if necessary intercept and destroy. Likewise these devices are electronically controlled by RF signals. Thus detect the signal and use it for targeting.

One would have expected our DoD wizards to have solved this years ago. But alas their focus seems to be on political correctness. Our Governor here in NJ is truly out of his depth. He is a retired Goldman banker and thus clueless regarding this technology. 

Some fifty years ago I had applied these techniques, adaptive multi-beam antenna in a range of applications, aircraft, submarines and low yield nuclear testing. So what has been happening over that half century. These are easy targets. One could assemble a system in short order, but then who is in charge of protecting the homeland? Think 9/11. It appears that it is not one.

Attack Drones?

 The NY Times discusses the unknown drones flying above my house and others here in New Jersey. One would have assumed that our wizards in DoD would have prepared for something like this. But alas they have spend the last decade on social engineering. Imagine in WW II if the Rad Lab at MIT was focused on hiring the right mix rather than radar systems. Perhaps my father would not have returned from the Pacific.

Now lets discuss what can/should be done. Drones have detectable profiles, optical and thermal. Ground based systems can be difficult but multi-beam sensors can be effective. These things also have an RF profile. They do not just fly around unguided. So identify the profile, monitor it, detect sources and sinks. I worked in this area 60 years ago! What has happened to DoD? Recall 9/11 when one could not get aircraft to defend the homeland. Two AF National Guard planes unarmed! 

At some point DoD should be held to account. Their primary goal is defending the United States. In my opinion they have been grossly neglectful.

Identity Theft

 How dumb do they think we are. Two recent events:

1. An on-line pharmacy tried to sell me a prescription. I had checked them our; horrible customer reviews and multiple legal actions. Then they call me, I think, and start asking detailed personal and medical questions. I have no idea who they were so needless to say I read them the HIPAA riot act no less various Federal Laws which they may be in jeopardy of. End of call.

2. A recent attempted delivery of a wine bottle led to a similar problem. They wanted to copy my Government issued ID to assure I was over 21! Do I look over 21, soon to be 82! Would I let some random delivery person have a copy of my Government issued ID. Not that dumb. So back went the package. 

Now perhaps I am too careful, but these two recent events led me to see how easy ID theft can be to the non-wary.

What Has Happened with Amazon?

 Over the past year almost 20% of my Amazon purchases are lost, permanently delayed, misplaced or failed to have been ordered. Mostly books, and it adds up. Their system appears to be decaying in performance and it seems no one cares. I end up going directly to the publisher even if it costs more and take longer. When Amazon is NEVER, "longer" no longer counts.

The Death of Facts

 As the head of Google notes in the NY Times:

Sundar Pichai, the chief executive of Google and its parent company Alphabet, predicted at the DealBook Summit on Wednesday that “search itself will continue to change profoundly in ’25,” and that the pace of artificial intelligence development was “slowing down.”The comments were part of the annual event in Manhattan, a series of discussions with some of the biggest newsmakers in business and global politics. Jeff Bezos, the founder and executive chairman of Amazon and the founder of Blue Origin, will be the final speaker of the day.

I can see what is happening already. When doing a Goggle Search for "Julius Caesar" for example  one gets first an "AI" result. This is a baseless result and may in fact be false. I should be seeing the "facts" such as Caesar's writings, the Roman historians, or other credible historians. NEVER some AI response.

A word for the wise, "Never Ever Trust an AI response" You never know the basis of the response. It is some computerized mish mash of unknown sources. 

But alas, the Mandarins in Silicon Valley want to take the last pieces of reality from us.

Observation

 "When political sects have been too long in office, they start believing they know what is good for you"

Russell Baker, 1992

NIH and Politics

 NIH has had a profound impact in health care. However it also had become a highly politicized and arrogant institution. One must always be aware of who is in charge and who pays your salary. If you own the company 100% perhaps you can get away with a great deal. However even then you have Governmental oversight especially in the US which has the greatest on our planet as I had become aware.

The NY Times bemoans the possible changes in NIH. In my opinion and my experience the problems at NIH, mostly political, are a result of the influence of Fauci and Collins. Collins seemed disconnected and Fauci, well it is Fauci. That good old Jesuit education!

NIH needs uncoupling from politics. However under the coming Administration this may not happen it may just swing another direction. But alas it is Washington. The worst thing to ever happen to NIH is to have it in Washington, or Bethesda. Yet CDC in Atlanta is no better. Why, politics.

Let's hope they do not throw the baby out with the bathwater!

Death of The Media?

 It is somewhat fortunate to be old enough to remember life before television.In the late 40s and early 50s at best we had a radio. There were many newspapers where the readers chose the paper of their choice, from the Telegram on the right to the Post on the left. Each newspaper had its audience as we have today with say Pod Casts.

In addition one even had short wave radio, allowing reception of the BBC at one end and Radio Moscow at the other. At 9 years of age I listened to Radio Moscow almost every night. It was well produced and told news that one would not get even on the BBC. It never occurred to me as a 9 year old that it might be propaganda. 

But by the late 50s TV was becoming common, we now had one. Network TV, The Media as we would come to know it, was just at night. Cronkite for News and then 3 hours of some form of programming. This was the Media, a common set of views, controlled by certain groups. By the 60s Cronkite was an alter ego to Washington. It happened ever so quickly. By the 90s the news papers disappeared, the Post became right wing, but the NY Times remained ever so to the left.

Then comes the Internet and Social Media. Social Media is as I noted in the late 2000s, a true psychological weapon. It finds out the psychological profile of a user and then provided the targeted propaganda. A great weapon for the Government. But it seems that it is slowly collapsing. Its collapse is by segmenting, separate echo chambers, with self selection. Most users are clueless to the propaganda they are receiving. They have been psychologically profiled, self selected, and then driven by the never ending propaganda. 

Unfortunately universities no longer serve the purpose of education. As more students, many truly unqualified to be educated, get to universities, they are dipped into the endless propaganda. University faculty and administration are selected to enhance this propaganda process. Education qua learning has been destroyed. My classic example is MIT and the DEI police in each department. Why theoretic physics or pure math need such is beyond me. 

Thus perhaps the destruction of The Media as we know it may be highly beneficial. Yet the lasting destruction of minds by universities must also be addressed.

The DOGE

 Historically the DOGE was the highest authority in Venice. I recall walking about in the DOGE's residence, well done in the finest of things. So strange that this new Government office is DOGE. I would guess that anyone with a modicum of knowledge would have made the connection.

But, let's take one entity. The FCC. The primary function of the FCC has been running spectrum auctions and pouring Billions into the Government Coffers. Now that takes little effort.

The manage spectrum, making sure people who are unauthorized do not abuse it. I am a licensed Radio operator. But the exams were outsources and all the FCC does is keep the record. Then the FCC has Administrative Law Courts. Unlike real courts they are made up of political appointees and decide whatever.

The FCC managed monopolies such as ATT. Now we have oligopolies, not monopolies and they seem unregulated.

So what does the FCC really do with all those people. Perhaps the DOGE may have its first target!

FDA and Drugs

 The FDA has a mandate to approve new drugs. Now this is a difficult process, especially as newer therapeutics are developed. Fundamentally there are three steps:

1. Does the new therapeutic cause no harms?

2. Is the new therapeutic effective. Namely does it do what it is supposed to.

3. Is the new therapeutic better than what is already available. Namely efficacy.

This may sound simple but to perform these tasks one needs a large enough statistical sample to show it is true or not. Now step 1 can be easy, relatively. But safe to whom? The normal healthy person or the ones with the disorder? Step 2 requires a large enough group of those with the disorder willing to be tested over some period of time. That can be difficult if the disease is rare. Step three is an A to B comparison. That means we have to test this perhaps for two or three years.

Now adding all these up leads to a five to ten year lag in approval. The FDA has found ways to expedite but no matter what there are always people who are harmed, often a small percent, bu always there. Then again with many of the new cancer immunotherapeutics we see 60% to 80% who are non responsive. Why? Not fully understood. Yet we utilize the therapeutics any way.

The challenge to an incoming FDA/HHS is to understand that we are in a major tectonic change in therapeutic introductions and approval. In a sense the mRNA vaccines are a now classic example. Unlike the classic smallpox vaccine, the Salk polio vaccine etc the mRNA vaccines are good at best for 6 months. The older ones are for a lifetime. Why? One would have thought that the NIH folks would have spent some time on that issue but no! Blame the head of the sub-agency I guess.

The incoming team, whoever is approved, must be open to face the challenges. As we learn more we recognize that the "unknown unknowns" start to dominate. There must be a willingness to move forward while still accepting we are dealing with a complex environment, the human body.

Multimedia Communications

 A few years back a edited a 1989 set of note from the first course on multimedia communications I taught at MIT. I think some of the students grasped some of the ideas. I also thought it may be worth posting my Preface from the update:

This is an edited version of the 1989 class notes on Multimedia Communications which I taught at MIT. I have tried to keep all the original material and eliminated some material which is so out of date that it has little use. However, in view of the slow growth of multimedia communications over this some thirty plus years, I felt an edited and useful version may be of interest. This is NOT a view from the current time but an edit of what was known in 1989. It is worth looking at this and comparing what has been accomplished and what is left undone. The basic and fundamental issues and ideas have not changed. The technology has advanced but the integration of that technology into a true and working multimedia communication environment has not. The current virus pandemic has placed an emphasis on the need for true multimedia communications as presented in this old notes. Two areas are of most import are education and medicine. Students are left with useless laptops trying to participate in classes using the limited abilities of a Zoom or some other primitive form of communications. In medicine we have telemedicine that uses the same limited technology and, in my opinion, does less than what I was doing at Harvard in 1986-1990. Instead, the current technology implementation has, in my opinion, wasted decades on such things as Apps while leaving the two areas just mentioned a wasteland. 

 There is a philosophy of multimedia communications, a philosophy as to what we are trying to do as humans in interacting with one another human or group of humans and even our environment. Multimedia communications is displaced human interactions. It tries to erase the sense of displacement; it tries to bridge the gap of technology qua technology. None of the systems currently available have even tried to understand this human interaction challenge. One cannot accomplish this with a screen on a smart phone. A laptop shining in one's eye glasses creates an ethereal image of unreality. Poor speakers and microphones present an almost comedic interaction, and of course the background is more like a reality home show than a true normal interaction. Finally, the technology itself gets in the way of interacting .In 1989 I tried to understand and remedy such issues with a philosophy of multimedia communications. Unfortunately, most technologists who design and deploy today's systems are devoid of any understanding of human interactions. Multimedia Communications must be "displaced human interactions". It is a simple concept but complex to execute. It must be a seamless and as Heidegger noted "ready at hand" and a simple "thing" that disappears when used, making the users act and communicate as if the distance was not there. This is a highly complex challenge. It requires understanding human interaction, human linguistics and the very nature of humanity at the highest level.

This current viral pandemic has demonstrated how poorly we have achieved this goal. Just the thought of using a smart phone to take university classes, or even primary school classes is an insane idea. This is the App world of Silicon Valley, a short term monetizable artifact that has set humanity back, and not allowed us to move forward. How can a Second-Grade teacher interact with her students? Clearly not with what we have now. How can a father read to his daughter, not as we have now? How can a Physician interact with a cancer patient unable to come to the clinic, not as we have now? Thus, the issuance of this slightly modified revision I believe has value and merit .I want to also provide a belated thanks to Professor Muriel Medard (MIT) who was my Teaching Assistant during this first course. She did a magnificent effort in assembling key references and sources and in managing the class structure. It is to her and my many other students to whom I dedicate this revision.  

Terrence P. McGarty Thornton, NH January 2021

Welcome to the Fourth World!

Well today's not on our crumbling country is the total power outage in Madison, NJ. This is a town owned and operated system. They had announced a local outage mid-day, but at 4 PM there was total outage! On the main street just prior to max traffic. This local entity is classic town managed and operated. Costly, inefficient, and in my opinion nearly incompetent. I have had experience with many such local power companies. They are remnants of early 20th century Socialism, namely literally power to the people. This closed all stores, medical practices etc. Clearly a potential cause for irreparable harm. Madison in my opinion and my experience has an aloof Government which seems to care less for citizens outside heir town.

Corporate Collapse of the Day

 I have used Fidelity for years. Under the new management they have become almost unbearable. Today their total system is down. I recall when I was first at Bell Labs and they introduced the first Electronic Switching System, ESS No 1. A system was in Beverly Hills. It had an EA 5, and Emergency Action 5, namely a crash and reboot at just before 1PM PST or 4 PM EST. Namely just before the Stock Market closed. Well you could image heads rolling. So what is the new head of Fidelity doing now that apparently her system has crashed? We are told it is a "snag". Just what in God's green earth is a "snag". You system has crashed! Customer's are losing money! 

Are you out of business, do I still have my money? Perhaps the Board should consider a realignment. 

UPDATE: This is what Fidelity states:

We are Sorry. There was a Technical Issue.

We are currently aware of an issue with some 3rd party browser plugins that are causing issues with access to the Fidelity website. Please try running your browser in incognito mode - or using an alternative browser as we work with the 3rd parties to resolve the issue.

If you continue to receive this page please contact customer support and provide them the reference number below.

Reference Error: 18.cb292117.1731636227.54aedbf9

Customer Service FAQs: Technical Support

Customer-Service Numbers

Now read this. It says the customer must fix the problem. I tried several browsers. I cannot find an "incognito" mode, nor should I. This is in my opinion a clear indication that the customer comes last, especially when you blame them and tell them to fix it themselves!

The Perils of Nationalized Medicine

 The New England Journal published an interesting piece on England's NHS. The following charts tell a story.

Note especially graph B. The treatment of Cancers withing 62 days after referral. It is now almost just 50% Now some malignancies can take this 62 day delay such as most prostate cancers. However a melanoma delay would be terminal. As would a sebaceous cell carcinoma and many others. 

The other charts also tell a story of pathetic treatment. In my experience, from the time of suspicion to the time of diagnosis and treatment by a specialist has often been less than 48 hours! Of course this is NY/NJ and I clearly have contacts and knowledge, but also I can work the system. Others can do so also. But in the NHS it just fails!

So Washington beware. nationalized health care is a scam, and a deadly one at that!

Antnee and P'Nut

I was cleaning up the leaves from the trees at the end of Fall last week, and sat down for a brief rest. When my fried Antnee came jumping up to my feet with a bit of a disgruntled face. He commenced his interrogation thusly:

 “Sir, may I ask you a question, Sir?” as if I were ever to try to say otherwise he continued:

 “Sir, I have been reading about the murderers in New York, Sir, the dastardly cowards who slaughtered a poor cousin, Sir, a true horrific act. What, Sir, do you think of this?”

 Before I could even open my mouth, he continued:

 “Rabies, Sir, how idiotic! We squirrels do not carry rabies. Why Sir, I have been vaccinated, like you and that COVID thing Sir, but we are careful! Do these New York butchers have no understanding!”

 I knew I should not even try to answer. His rant continued:

 “Why Sir, you are a well know expert on viruses, indeed, and you yourself Sir know that we squirrels are not carriers of rabies, but it is those dastardly bats. Yes sir, bats. The sleep when we are awake Sir, and we sleep when they are awake! How, Sir, I beg of you, could we ever get infected! Idiotic!”

 He was on a rant indeed. But he had several good points. So I kept silent.

 “Well Sir, then these butchers from Albany, attacked poor P’Nut and he bit them. Do they not know Sir, wear gloves, like you Sir, but NO, these fools just tried to squeeze the life of a cousin! Fools Sir, indeed fools!”

 “Then these fools Sir, they fail to just blood test for viral antibodies! You know that sir, indeed you do. But in New York, the only solution is death and brain biopsy!”

 “Imagine Sir, these same butchers treating your kin folk! Diagnosis by death! Keeps health costs down Sir, keeps the costs down!”

 I could see Antnee was getting tired out. So I interjected:

 “Antnee, I agree my friend. This was a brutal and uncalled for act. But it was New York after all. A state known for acts of brutality. Just look at New York City, once a thriving metropolis, now a collapsing hell hole of crime and decay.”

 “Ah, you are so right Sir, so right. Why just the other day Sir I spoke with cousin Alex, he come over from Staten Island, you recall him Sir, a bit on the heavy side, I guess it is the pizza, well Sir he said that even there the State is starting to interfere. I guess Sir we are safe here for a bit, but we must beware! Beware indeed Sir, for this Government control can cost lives, indeed Sir, first we squirrels, then you humans, Sir! Beware!”

 Without another word he just scrambled off, finding an acorn and then commencing the often fruitless task of burying it. Yet I thought of this conversation, as usual Antnee always brought a deep perspective on current events!