We are going on a year of reporting. Some good news some bad. Let's start:
First, the vaccines are flowing but we must anticipate a delayed effect. Below is the flow of the first two.
This is an interesting but confusing chart. We have taken the ratio of the new infected divided by the vulnerable. Namely the vulnerable are the total population less the formerly infected plus vaccinated. It is increasing which is the surprise. It may be a delay effect but it is worth watching.
This is the new infected vs the percent vaccinated (first) plus infected. Again there is some temporal effects but the flattening is a concern.
The one below is infected plus vaccinated vs time. Vaccinations are increasing at a good pace.
The incremental vaccinated per day is close to 2 million, it should be well above 3.5 by mid April.
This is the Biden curve. He promised what Trump was delivering so it is a slam dunk.
Now for some local data. Here is the town doubling time. It is much too high. The reason, "Kids". Every noon time school is let out and mass crowds of kids assemble for hours and spread the virus. No Public Health controls so we all suffer!
By town here are the doubling times. Surprisingly Morristown is great and Chester Borough is horrible!
The incidence per PoP still shows the Dover cluster. Again having no Public Health structure makes this an unstoppable event.
New cases per day of county and town show dramatic difference. The County is decreasing and the town increasing.
The prevalence of 60 people in the town is the beginning of another peak.
The State new per day is flattening at a high level.
The County is actually increasing
The doubling time seems flat at about 200 days.
Death rates seem fixed at 2%
The good news seems to be the final reduction in LTC mortality.
State prevalence is increasing
The County prevalence as well.
Some observations on Demographics. Below is the normalized positives by age. Clearly the spreaders are young 18-29 year olds. These are the ones which spread between and then onto the more vulnerable. School age children not so much.
Second, and as usual, the prevalence is in Hispanic households. This is almost 3:1 to Asians and almost 2:1 with Whites. Again we refer to the ACE2 receptor variants as the driver as well.
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