Thursday, April 22, 2021

CDC, Recommendations, and Mushrooms

http:// The CDC published a set of recommendations for vaccinated people in JAMA. They note:

In addition, preliminary but rapidly increasing evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people likely pose little risk of transmission to unvaccinated people. Studies from the US, UK, and Israel found that 2 doses of Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines were 86% to 92% effective against asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. More specifically, studies from Israel demonstrated that the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine was 90% effective against asymptomatic infection, and vaccinated people who developed COVID-19 had a substantially lower viral load than unvaccinated people. Viral load has been identified as a key driver of transmission and this observation may indicate reduced transmissibility. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the COVID-19 disease burden in the US.

OK, so the vaccines work. But where is the data. The CDC and the Government in general treats us mushrooms as the story goes, keep using the dark and feed us with, well you know. Science demands data, full open, readily accessible, analyzable etc. We cannot seem to get that from the CDC. The FDA seems to be open but not the CDC and Mother Doom.

They continue:

  • A growing body of evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people are less likely to have asymptomatic infection and potentially less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. However, further investigation is ongoing.

  • Modeling studies suggest that preventive measures such as mask use and social distancing will continue to be important during vaccine implementation. However, there are ways to take a balanced approached by allowing vaccinated people to resume some lower-risk activities.

  • Taking steps toward relaxing certain measures for vaccinated persons may help improve COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and uptake.

  • The risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection in fully vaccinated people cannot be completely eliminated as long as there is continued community transmission of the virus. Vaccinated people could potentially still get COVID-19 and spread it to others. However, the benefits of relaxing some measures, such as quarantine requirements, and reducing social isolation may outweigh the residual risk of fully vaccinated people becoming ill with COVID-19 or transmitting the virus to others

 Where is this "body of evidence"? Why cannot we see and examine it. Models do not work. So stop with the models. They fail in every dimension. This is not some Issac Asimov tale. There is no Harry Seldin. 

Read the above carefully. It appears that they cannot get their stories straight.

The facts are that we really do not know all there is as to transmission and resistance. If a vaccinated person is exposed, we think that as the virus moves to the lungs the immune system will kill it. However that in the upper passage may linger in a small amount for perhaps a short period of time. We think. But the data does not exist.

 Overall we must have full and open data sources. The CDC could have data sets readily accessible and lists of peer reviewed reports asserting the bases for their claims. Regrettably they do not.

As an update, I returned to the CDC web site in search of real scientific evidence regarding mask usage and vaccinated individuals. The best I could find was a note based in data from 2002 thru May 2020. There was no data demonstrating the current pandemic. What one does not epidemiologically is that there are "clusters" in towns which dominate the infection rates. New Jersey is ranked second in infections per PoP. But drilling down one sees just a few places which dominate that density. So why not call them out and solve the problem. That was done almost 200 years ago with cholera in London drinking water. It may even be a set of Typhoid Mary carriers, but whatever, go find it and drive it to zero. It is this lack of Public Health competence, Local and Federal, which is now the driver!