Saturday, April 17, 2021

NJ 2021 04 17

 Again we begin with the normalized incidence. One should remember that the over 60 group is now almost 75% immunized so the incidence is amongst the younger 18-30 year olds. Anecdotal evidence regarding the "Spring Break" in Florida attributes the crowd to people having their relief checks and not college students who had no spring breaks. Interesting speculation and if true the Government seems to be incentivizing the spread! Not at all surprising however. Now the data:

Here we show the clear ongoing rise in daily incidence normalized by the vulnerable base. In fact the driver seems to coincided with check releases! Perhaps that is what is happening in Michigan. Vaccinations continue to rise. Also as we have noted repeatedly we anticipate annual updates as with flu shots so no surprise there.
The town doubling time has started up again. But well from where it should be!
However there are towns with excellent doubling times.
The new per day seems to be dropping but again we should normalize.
The prevalence in the town is 60 and is still high.
However state doubling is at or above 200 which is good.
State new has popped up again
whereas county is dropping.
Death rates are still quite low.