As more "at home" tests are done, who is reporting on them? The thousands of positives just seem to be lost in long lines and thus the data has become grossly useless! Again our Public Health system managed by the trolls under the 14th Street Bridge.
Update: The NY Times finally reports on this mess.
1. factum est autem in diebus illis exiit edictum a Caesare Augusto ut describeretur universus orbis
2. haec descriptio prima facta est praeside Syriae Cyrino
3. et ibant omnes ut profiterentur singuli in suam civitatem
4. ascendit autem et Ioseph a Galilaea de civitate Nazareth in Iudaeam civitatem David quae vocatur Bethleem eo quod esset de domo et familia David
5. ut profiteretur cum Maria desponsata sibi uxore praegnate
6. factum est autem cum essent ibi impleti sunt dies ut pareret
7. et peperit filium suum primogenitum et pannis eum involvit et reclinavit eum in praesepio quia non erat eis locus in diversorio
8. et pastores erant in regione eadem vigilantes et custodientes vigilias noctis supra gregem suum
9. et ecce angelus Domini stetit iuxta illos et claritas Dei circumfulsit illos et timuerunt timore magno
10. et dixit illis angelus nolite timere ecce enim evangelizo vobis gaudium magnum quod erit omni populo
11. quia natus est vobis hodie salvator qui est Christus Dominus in civitate David
12. et hoc vobis signum invenietis infantem pannis involutum et positum in praesepio
13. et subito facta est cum angelo multitudo militiae caelestis laudantium Deum et dicentium
14. gloria in altissimis Deo et in terra pax in hominibus bonae voluntatis
15. et factum est ut discesserunt ab eis angeli in caelum pastores loquebantur ad invicem transeamus usque Bethleem et videamus hoc verbum quod factum est quod fecit Dominus et ostendit nobis
16. et venerunt festinantes et invenerunt Mariam et Ioseph et infantem positum in praesepio
17. videntes autem cognoverunt de verbo quod dictum erat illis de puero hoc
18. et omnes qui audierunt mirati sunt et de his quae dicta erant a pastoribus ad ipsos
19. Maria autem conservabat omnia verba haec conferens in corde suo
20. et reversi sunt pastores glorificantes et laudantes Deum in omnibus quae audierant et viderant sicut dictum est ad illos
In April of 2020 I wrote a piece on COVID therapeutics. It was speculative. Now in NEJM they assert that my speculation is correct. They note:
Among nonhospitalized patients who were at high risk for Covid-19 progression, a 3-day course of remdesivir had an acceptable safety profile and resulted in an 87% lower risk of hospitalization or death than placebo.
NEJM present the data as:
Those "at home" Covid tests have gone the way of empty shelves and toilet paper. To make it worse, really, really, worse is the Administrations to suck up some 500 million wiping out any rational distribution. Now you have to seek permission from the Feds to be tested and wait until they send you a test. This is classic Communism in Russia during the 30s.
It is counter to any rational market approach. The efficient distribution channels are existent, namely the pharmacies and even say any on line purveyor, except perhaps in my opinion and my experience Amazon, where one has no idea who is selling what.
So mark my words, once a scarcity exists, when the Government decides to take control, the scarcity increases until there is none. Getting your tests from the Feds is in my opinion one of the dumbest ideas ever created by the mind of a human. But alas it is the Wunderkind in the current Administration.
Just thought I would do a little field test. Namely could I get a COVID Rapid Test for the antigen anywhere within 25 miles of my house. Now this is almost two years after the beginning of the pandemic and a year of the current Administration said they would solve all the "problems".
Answer, one could not find a single location with such a test available, period. The online web sites said they were but after driving here and there one could find none. Just signs saying SORRY WE ARE OUT. They left out the remainder, GO HOME AND DIE. Thanks Washington. In early 2020 it was toilet paper, now it is test kits.
How are we to stop the pandemic if we must remain in the dark? Thanks DC.
I went food shopping today and it reminded me of Moscow in 1978. If it is Tuesday it is bread day, no soap. If it is Friday before noon, then you get soap. Potatoes only on Monday afternoon if you are early. This is classic Marxist distribution. Half empty shelves. No garlic today folks. Must be the garlic stuck on ships off LA.
Welcome to the end of the American Experiment. Oh yes, stop blaming the last guy, this is all yours now. You break it you own it, the problem.
Just a reminder, today is the Winter Solstice. Hug you friendly oak. In the event that someone has cut down a friendly oak, stay clear of them for the forces will be quite upset. The sun now starts its long journey back. Welcome it with open arms and pray that it chases Omicron across the heavens.
Just heard the CDC spokesperson state that Omicron was a surprise. But on November 25 we noted it would be the next driver in the pandemic. Add to that the lack of testing, which we have screamed about for almost two years now, and we have an Administration both asleep at the switch and reckless in their duties.
On February 4, 2020 we declared Covid as a pandemic. It took the then Administration six week to even react. But they reacted. It seems we have the same gang who can't shoot straight in charge destroying everything.
In February of this year (2021) I wrote a White Paper on Vaccines and Variants. I noted that the variants would most likely come from immune compromised populations where the virus has a chance to go through a multiplicity of mutations. I then suggested a strategy to deal with these variants including enhanced vaccines wherein the mRNA was a complex.
Now almost a year latter we see Omicron, also a noted variant I spoke of earlier, and its rapid spread.
The NY Times notes:
With the holiday travel season already underway, new coronavirus cases are surging in the United States, prompting governors and mayors to once again wrestle with how far to go to combat the virus as federal officials said that Omicron has become by far the dominant form of new virus cases in the country.In New York State, reports of new cases shot up more than 80 percent over two weeks. In Washington, D.C., where the mayor reinstated an indoor mask mandate on Monday, more than three times as many infections are being identified each day as at the start of December.
This was not an unanticipated event. In fact as I had noted it was expected. In addition we should be well ahead of the bow wave in vaccine enhancements by including the Omicron mRNA in the mRNA vaccines. Instead the Jesuitical Sophist and its ilk spend time pontificating on political palaver instead of keeping their political thoughts to themselves and acting in the best interests on the citizenry. We went through 2020 with no vaccine but a hope for it. Now we have vaccines but they need updating, continual updating.
The Times also notes:
The move comes after New York City
officials announced that they would open an additional 23 coronavirus
testing sites by the end of the week to try to meet a soaring demand as
people race to learn their status before holiday travel and indoor
gatherings. “Testing helps us on so
many levels,” Mayor Bill de Blasio told reporters on Monday. “It helps
to make sure that each person knows where they stand. On the very
personal level, when you get tested, you know what’s going on, you know
what to do.” By the end of this week,
New Yorkers will have 112 city-run sites, which are spread out among all
five boroughs and have been opened in various settings, including
health care facilities, schools, libraries and community centers.
The testing systems were demanded almost two years ago after the CDC gross incompetence. But alas a bigger set of bumblers now inhabit that domain and the Government has again grossly failed to be in any way effective. This was NOT a surprise. So why the inability to find a site. In New Jersey if one tries to go to a public site the current wait for an appointment is ten days! I guess it is faster to come and collect the body!
Good and credible Government communicators must tell the populace as well as educate them. Don't lecture, be empathetic, and let the public know what and why. Instead we regrettably get monomaniacal manifestations of misinformation.
Bottom line is:
1. Vaccines work, not in preventing the virus but in suppressing its effects. The virus can still enter the system but the immune system has been fine tuned to attack and destroy if before it causes problems.
2. Vaccinated people can still transmit the virus. We noted in April of 2020 that the virus can remain dormant in the nasal passages in an immune person but then can be spread to others. Vaccines are not preventative, they assist the immune system in battling the infection so it does not cause too much damage.
3. We really, really, need better Government communicators, not politicians.
4. Annualized vaccines are anticipated and the virus mutates and becomes endemic. Just like the flu.
5. Post infection medications will also become more common and effective.
6. We really, really, need a competent Public Health system like we had a century ago. The we dealt with the flu, TB, and a massive number of infectious diseases without any means to treat and in many cases any understanding. We did it through a competent and dedicated Public Health system.
We started this blog 13 years ago today. The initial driver was to comment on the 2008 financial collapse and the general lack of clarity amongst economists. Over the years we have morphed many times making comments on a variety of topics.
Most recently we have discussed the pandemic and we believe we have tried to stay ahead of the proverbial bow wave in understanding and discussing the virus, its changes and implications. We have seen nearly a half million visitors during this period and hopefully have provided some perspectives of interest.
Now at 13 we have reached some form of adulthood. As such it will be interesting what we shall be focused on as we move through this never ending pandemic pandemonium. The one observations we keep making is the general lead footed Government administrators, all too often out for self aggrandizement yet creating more hardships for the people. It is a thread that flows through the past 13 years.
We have now seen three presidencies, many challenges, more threats, and some achievements.
Things keep getting worse, I think. Lots more infections but few hospitalizations or deaths. Is this becoming the common cold variant? Here was last weeks variant list, small Omicron almost all Delta. Bust suspect it is changing.
Tech Dirt has an interesting piece describing the problems with the Government and funding of broadband. They commence:
As we've noted, the recent infrastructure bill will deliver a record $65 billion to be spent on improving lagging U.S. broadband access. Roughly $42 billion will be used specifically to expand broadband coverage, mostly via state grants doled out by the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA). By any measure this is a good thing, and the investment should result in significant improvements in patchy, expensive U.S. broadband access.
Now I recall quite well the last broadband expenditure under Obama. The "shovel ready" projects which often were nothing more than road signs. Billions spent and it is often impossible to find out what was accomplished. Specifically in my opinion and in my experience I have seen hundreds of millions just spent and the results are insignificant if anything at all.
The above article starts with several key points:
1. Where is broadband needed? Frankly we do not know. There is a lot of anecdotal information, some poor kid sitting in the rain or snow, outside a library trying to do their homework. Is broadband needed there or is it just access. Somehow the kid has a laptop, somehow the kid knows how to use it, and fundamentally the kid is motivated. Also for some reason the kid can't seem to get to the library when it is open.
2. How will the States allocate the billions? States and Government in general do not have the faintest clue as to what needs to be done. These are either political hacks or career government employees. Deployment of broadband demands experience in technology, installation and operations, none of which is a talent in any of the state folks. So how is it distributed? Politics and friends of the court. What does that mean, 2009 all over again.
3. Is broadband access the solution? Hardly. We have argued for decades since I taught the first Multimedia Communications course at MIT in the late 1980s that multimedia communications is a complex process. Just having access is at most the first step. A laptop, software, etc all are demanded.
4. What are the barriers to entry besides incompetent government? The Tech Dirt article notes:
But these state mapping efforts are hugely inconsistent. Maine, for example, has done a good job developing crowdsourced mapping data through the state's Connect Maine initiative. But for every state like Maine there are four states that have absolutely no idea what broadband reality looks like, in large part because their state legislatures and regulators are in the back pocket of regional monopolies like AT&T and Comcast. Both companies have a long track record of fighting broadband mapping improvements (something the Post oddly doesn't mention). In part because a more accurate look at U.S. broadband competition and coverage gaps would only drive policy efforts to actually do something about it. But also because these companies have spent the better part of a generation hoovering up billions in broadband subsidies for networks they then notoriously only half deliver.
I could not agree more. The monopolists want their monopoly. In my opinion and in my experience they often achieve this by aligning with the towns who somehow believe this will get them more. I have done battle with many of these monopolists and the cost is insurmountable. Yet the towns who provide their franchises appear to do nothing to ameliorate the problem. These ISPs cannot operate without a franchise yet somehow that lever is applied only against the new entrants.
5. Just what do we mean by broadband? That is a good question. Must we have fiber to the home, a costly deal. Must we have high speed 5G wireless with billions of tiny cells all connected by fiber? Doubtful. It depends on what you want to use it for. That is the fundamental problem.
Now consider what will happen in this broadband give away. The money will be allocated by NTIA. NTIA is a bunch of Government bureaucrats who have no business experience. The money then will go to states, most likely on a politically driven basis. Namely most likely in my opinion to buy votes not to meet some unmet capability. Then the states, even less competent that the Feds will dole out the money in some truly political manner.
Finally there will never be any auditing to ensure that to funds were properly spent. I had seen this the last round of these give aways. Hundreds of millions just "spent" with no transparency and with no truly productive effect.
The NY Times reports on the massive mess created by the initial CDC defective tests in the early stages of the pandemic. They note:
The faulty coronavirus testing kits developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the early weeks of the pandemic were not only contaminated but had a basic design flaw, according to an internal review by the agency. Health officials had already acknowledged that the test kits were contaminated, but the internal report, whose findings were published in PLOS ONE on Wednesday, also documented a design error that caused false positives. The distribution of faulty test kits, at a time when no other tests were authorized, set back health officials’ efforts to detect and track the virus.
The PLOSONE paper notes:
At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) designed, manufactured, and distributed the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel for SARS-CoV-2 detection. The diagnostic panel targeted three viral nucleocapsid gene loci (N1, N2, and N3 primers and probes) to maximize sensitivity and to provide redundancy for virus detection if mutations occurred. After the first distribution of the diagnostic panel, state public health laboratories reported fluorescent signal in the absence of viral template (false-positive reactivity) for the N3 component and to a lesser extent for N1. This report describes the findings of an internal investigation conducted by the CDC to identify the cause(s) of the N1 and N3 false-positive reactivity. For N1, results demonstrate that contamination with a synthetic template, that occurred while the “bulk” manufactured materials were located in a research lab for quality assessment, was the cause of false reactivity in the first lot. Base pairing between the 3’ end of the N3 probe and the 3’ end of the N3 reverse primer led to amplification of duplex and larger molecules resulting in false reactivity in the N3 assay component. We conclude that flaws in both assay design and handling of the “bulk” material, caused the problems with the first lot of the 2019-nCoV Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel. In addition, within this study, we found that the age of the examined diagnostic panel reagents increases the frequency of false positive results for N3. We discuss these findings in the context of improvements to quality control, quality assurance, and assay validation practices that have since been improved at the CDC.
Simply stated it appears that the CDC, as we have noted since the beginning, had grossly and incompetently prepared and addressed the pandemic before it even began. PCR tests are standards and have been used for decades. The sequence to be looked for was available. The CDC just was grossly incompetent. Nothing really new there.
The real lesson to be learned is that relying solely upon the Government is a menu for disaster. There were hundreds, if not thousands, of academic and private labs who could have done this. But the CDC, like so many Government entities, wants to control to the full extent, prohibiting more reliable and competent entities. We should remember this when we see demands for Government health care, education, child care and the list goes on.
Well here we go again. Morris County has the highest daily infection reports ever! Almost all are break through infections. Namely people who have been totally vaccinated yet acquire the infection and then pass it on. Wait till Christmas and New Years!
First the Town prevalence is approaching pas values pre-vaccines. It is clear that the town, county and state appear not go give a damn here as to infections.
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