The Delta break throughs are aggressively progressing. Let us look first at the vulnerable vs break through and actuals. The actuals are exploding and most likely due to a much higher incidence rate than the CDC noted. The old numbers were 600 per 100,000 unvaccinated per week whereas the vaccinated were 100. However we believe the break through rate is closer to 400, slightly below the unvaccinated but not much! Yet the severity may not be that high.
The below is the infections to vulnerable, namely unvaccinated or not previously infected. It has exploded mainly dur to break throughs.
Vaccinations are increasing but the data is noisy since the CDC took 4 day Thanksgiving holiday. One really cannot rely on CDC data.
Infections and vaccinations are up but the concern is the increased beak through rates. This is an interesting question for the immunologists.
The town doubling time is down again, most likely break throughs.
This is the town doubling times. Anything below 200 is a real problem. Most are there and many are in just double digits.Strangely the break through locations seem to be the upper class areas.
Both town and county are tracking.
Town incidence is nearing the initial peak of March 2020! I see no decline and there are almost all break through Delta. I suspect it will continue.
The doubling time for the state is still dropping:
But here is the issue, deaths. We can compare incidence peaks to death peaks. We see deaths follow incidence by about 30-45 days. Thus if we expect the same here we shall see deaths starting to peak around Christmas. That will be telling.
Here is the driving data as noted for the state:
and for the county.
Deaths per day again should be compared to incidences.
Finally the state prevalence is approaching the early 2020 numbers. It actually maps into the last year holiday season data so beware!
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