Saturday, July 24, 2021

NJ 2021 07 24

 We see a continual rise nationally and in the state. Here is the analysis. First the doubling time is a reasonable metric to see the growth or decay. The doubling time still is decreasing which is a poor indication.

The state incidence still is climbing
and the county seems to be peaking
Mortality is still significant amongst those not vaccinated. It is running about 3-5% and since 80% in the 50+ age group are vaccinated ot previously infected this means that young people have a substantial mortality risk.
Prevalence is low in the state
The doubling time by towns shows lingering hot spots
but the town seems flat and the county has its smaller peak. BUT the county has some 75% immunity so the relative peak is higher by a factor of 4!
Town prevalence is just a few people
Now we have the CDC data mess, the large 210,000 increase seems to have been a grossly incompetent number but they never explained or retracted. Love the FEDs.
One can see this better below
Finally vaccinations are low but flattening.