We have been at this blog for twelve years. Looking back,
the initiation was when I was still at MIT working with doctoral and Post Docs
and as the then new administration came on the scene. I was not an economist by
training but had mastered many of the techniques while dealing with regulatory
agencies. There was and remains a massive divide between economics and the real
world. I was concerned about what the then new administration was proposing.
There was a "financial crisis" due primarily to the alleged
fraudulent lending practices and monetization of the less than reliable loans.
The banks behind this collapse were looking to escape not only free of any
responsibility but actually profiting from the actions.
Here were some of my evolving thoughts:
1. The Romer Curve: Some economist from California came to the
White House and before even stepping indoors detailed a month-by-month plan on how
their proposal would reduce unemployment. I followed her projections and
reality. Not once was her projection even close to reality over the three years
I followed it. So much for economists. Trillions were dumped on the economy.
2. "Shovel Ready Projects": This was one of the biggest
scams ever. Hundreds of billions purported to be spent on projects in
infrastructure. The only result I saw in my four years of weekly car travel to
and from MIT were the signs. Lots of signs telling of some pending project,
none of which I ever saw even started. Governments often live off of slogans, a
few make sense but most and pure palaver. This one was just an excuse to enrich
the coffers of God knows who.
3. "If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor":
Back to health care for me. It was clear then new administration wanted to
nationalize medicine. Needless to say I was against it. The Government cannot
deliver the mail nor run a railroad. Why in God's name would you allow it to
deal with life and death. The ACA became a massive and, in my opinion, abusive
legal dictum from Washington. A typical example was the demand for an
electronic health care network. The HER is a useless burden and has not
usefulness for the ultimate user, the patient. Over this period members of
Congress and State legislators had attempted to totally destroy any type of
individual health care and mandate a centralized system. Their intent is total
Government control under their own proscriptive.
4. "You did not create that business by yourself, the
Government helped you": This one sent me into a bit of a flurry. How did
the Government help me in Russia? Yes Russia! Thanks to my Russian colleagues,
now considered enemies, I managed to build an infrastructure across central and
Eastern Europe. Did the then President and his cronies help. No. Did the
Russians, yes. It was all at my own personal risk, time, money, insight, and
totally devoid of the US Government. In fact, I had to move from New Jersey to
Prague to get reliable electricity and field service competence. In reality
what I accomplished was despite the US Government not as a result of its
support.
5. Cancer can be cured: Over this period, I saw and had the good
fortune to be involved in the development of a variety of new treatments for
cancer, and in some cases seeing cures for the first time. This achievement was
the result of new "tools" like Next Gen Sequencing and the hard work
of the physicians, scientists and engineers in the process. Unlike the Silicon
Valley billionaires who created "hot air" and "civil
unrest", the biotech industry was the one true positive jump forward.
However, as we noted, much of this expertise not just leaked but flowed out to
China.
6. The COVID Plague: The last year we have seen the strangest
development in humanity, the COVID plague. The role of Government to lead and
assure the citizens that it can be overcome has turned into an ongoing war of
abject hatred between parties. The COVID plague has demonstrated that
"science" has turned into a religion, and if one is a practitioner of
the approved denomination then their word is divine otherwise it is anathema. Unfortunately,
science is problematic. As medical student are often told, what they have
learned at the end of Med School will at best be half correct when they
commence their professional life. Melanoma was a death sentence and now it can
be "cured". CML was a death sentence now, at worst, a chronic annoyance
treated with a generic drug. The COVID vaccine is the result of having the
tools to do what was needed and the people to make it so.
7. Networks, Security, and Incompetence: Billions were dropped from
helicopters to fund rural broadband and yet it is argued by many that nothing
happened. Why have we seen such massive security threats? Simple, the
Government has amassed a collection of politicians and lacks the technical and
intel competence demanded.
8. Social Networks and Social Anarchy: Just after Facebook broke at
Harvard my MIT students insisted that I join in. I did, for a short while, but
soon saw the serious flaws in such a system. First for any adversary it
provided the most powerful psychological profiling system ever created. In
the 1970s we always wanted to get profiles of our Soviet adversaries, and oftentimes
we received long profiles based on hearsay at best. Yet Facebook, circa 2008, was
a perfect platform to see how an individual would respond to various stimuli. Furthermore,
it was also a brilliant propaganda tool. Thus, in just a few short weeks I was
in and then out. It clearly was too dangerous a tool to be left in the hands of
immature and highly egotistical children. The same held for Twitter and my
brief encounter. Yet the risk to the social media companies is that the alleged
"value" they provide may be ephemeral. Just look at Facebook. Before
it there was MySpace, and other similar environments online. Thus, what stops
someone from creating a truly Balkanized environment, further intensifying the
divide. Indeed, with newspapers for decades that is what happened. People have
already self-segmented themselves off-line so why not on-line. The value chain
can be easily broken here.
9. The Revival of Marxism: As I have noted on many occasions my
Grandmother was a major player in early 20th century socialism
having run for office both nationally and in New York as a leader of the
Socialist Party. Yet then the issues were clean water and food, safe working
conditions, fair wages, and most everything we agree to today. Also there was racial
equality and the women's right to vote. Now the so-called socialists are
fundamentally proto-Marxists. Instead of improving the lives of the individual
then seek the destruction of the individual and the establishment of the state
as a sine qua non and their dictates controlling such a state.
10. The destruction of the Academy: I often wonder if I could ever
be admitted into MIT now, even after all I may have done. I still recall be
denied admission to Columbia because I was a Catholic, the letter written and
signed by Dean Donald Barr, strangely enough the father of the outgoing
Attorney General. Stranger even more is that I became a Professor at Columbia
and now am on Boards at the Med School and Hospital. Perhaps I could be
admitted to Columbia now, but alas I doubt the same could be said for MIT.
Proto-Marxism is infiltrating all ranks of Academia. It goes beyond just
political correctness; it is akin the Mao and The Great Leap Forward.
11. China: From 2005 thru 2012 I had a bunch of doctoral students.
All but one remained in the US and not a one them a US citizen. Many were
Chinese nationals. I could see many more getting trained at MIT and returning
to China and worse they were funded by the US Government, even worse by DoD and
its related organization. I often worried about what I called the "Yamamoto
syndrome", the Admiral whose attack on Pearl Harbor is infamous and whose
education was at Harvard. We often worried about the IP in high tech such as
electronics. I worried about biotech and not only controlling therapeutics but
also controlling bio elements of warfare. Then came COVID.
12. Russia: Russia could have been an allay but for. The "but
fors" started in the Clinton Administration when the US sent masses of
Business School academics to Russia and their efforts created oligarchs. The in
the Balkans the US fought against the Orthodox Christians, and this worried
Moscow. Then in the administration from 2008-2016 Russia was treated to various
overt undermining such as State Department dignitaries personally intervening
in elections and promoting adversarial relations with Moscow. Then of course we
have had the last four years. What could have been a Kissingerian policy of
using Russia to re balance China, resulted in the state of having a pile of
adversaries and no allies.
13. Trust: Finally, there is the issue of trust. Dave Staelin, a
former colleague at MIT, introduced me to this issue. I had never given much
thought to it, for in the Reagan years the phrase "trust but verify"
was used regarding the Soviets. To anyone attuned to the language, trust did
not exist, and one had to verify. I had spent the 70s doing some of that while
in DC. In the intel world, trust is the last thing one ever thinks of. In fact,
the three prime directives are; trust no one, never put it in writing, and
always have a second exit. Well just look at the last decade. Trust is gone,
everybody puts it in writing (email is the culprit) and there are no second
exits, they all go out the front door. But the issue is trust. Can we trust
politicians? No. Can we now even trust our elections? I really have doubts
based upon my personal experiences here in New Jersey (loss of secret ballot,
multiple mail in ballots, delayed counting well after declared results, and a
Postal Service refusing to deliver the mail, just to name the few I was exposed
to with the mandatory mail in process). Loss of trust is a serious problem.
Marriages cannot survive, business fail, and governments collapse. Perhaps the
greatest loss since I began this blog is trust in anyone and anything. The left
does not trust the right and vice versa. It is very hard to regain trust, for
once lost it is often nonreturnable.
14. "The electronic transaction, information and
entertainment" market: People buy most everything online. In 1980 when I
went to Warner, my boss, Gus Hauser, wanted me to create an on-line system to
do all three of the above. We had a 2-way cable system called QUBE and I had a
team of brilliant folks willing to try to do the job. We accomplished it in two
years so by 1982 we had the system in proof-of-concept mode in New York and
Pittsburgh. The problem was we were too early. I had IBM PCs,. Hayes Modems,
and early versions of color monitors. We had banks, travel companies, Atari and
Warner films, Department Stores, and a complete mix. Unfortunately, some of our
Board thought it was a dumb idea, for they stated no one would ever shop or be
entertained or bank this way. Some of these futurists went on to head major
information age companies, and perhaps were later astute enough to see what they
missed. The biggest loss were the dozen patents which were prepared but never
filed. Warner unfortunately, under new management, also though there was no
future. Amazon is about half way to accomplishing what we did forty years ago.
The lesson, never be too early.