Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Back of the Envelope

 Let's work backwards on the vaccine.

1. Assume 22.5 million doses

2. Assume 330 million people. Now this may or may not count non-citizens and here is the crux

3. This is about 7% of the population

4. There are about 700,000 physicians and 3.8 million nurses in the US

5. There are about 700,000 police and similar number fire and rescue.

6. Thus 5.2 million are essential, real essential

7. That leaves 17 million or so for the rest

8. There are 1.4 million nursing home residents, thus we are down to 15.5 million

9. In New Jersey this is distributed proportionately. With a population of about 9 million we get 2.7% or about 420,000 doses for the next batch.

10. But, and here we have a real but, the above rules do not apply, because the Gov has his panels of "experts", read "cronies", who will decide.

And we all know the end of this story......