Past as Prologue

In 1992 the National Academies published a report entitled Emerging Infections: Microbial Threats to Health in the United States (1992) which laid out the potential for massive life threatening viral attacks. The summary noted:

The committee recommends the development and implementation of strategies that would strengthen state and federal efforts in U.S. surveillance. Strategy development could be a function of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Alternatively, the strategy development and coordination functions could be assigned to a federal coordinating body (e.g., a subcommittee of the Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology's [FCCSET] Committee on Life Sciences and Health, specifically constituted to address this issue. Implementation of the strategies would be assigned to the appropriate federal agencies (e.g., CDC, National Institutes of Health, U.S. Department of Agriculture). Approaches for consideration could include simplifying current reporting forms and procedures, establishing a telephone hotline by which physicians could report unusual syndromes, and using electronic patient data collected by insurance companies to assist in infectious disease surveillance.

The report opened with:

In May 1989, Rockefeller University, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and the Fogarty International Center co-sponsored a conference on emerging viral agents. Although the conference focused on viruses, it spurred interest in the emergence and resurgence of all classes of infectious agents. At the conference and in other forums, concern was expressed about the apparent complacency of the scientific and medical communities, the public, and the political leadership of the United States toward the danger of emerging infectious diseases and the potential for devastating epidemics. Recognizing these concerns, the Board on Health Sciences Policy of the Institute of Medicine (IOM) determined that the IOM could play a unique role by reviewing the relevant science, developing a research agenda, considering the implications for policy, and making specific  recommendations for minimizing the public health impact of future emerging microbial threats. In  mid-1989, a study proposal was developed and approved, and sponsors were secured. Thus, the 1989 conference served as an excellent prelude to the IOM study. In February 1991, the IOM convened a 19-member multidisciplinary committee to conduct an 18-month study of emerging microbial threats to health. Committee expertise comprised the fields of epidemiology, virology, immunology, food safety microbiology, food toxicology, public health, molecular biology, cell biology, economics, microbial genetics, parasitology, infectious diseases, microbial pathogenesis, medical entomology and systematics, and bacterial physiology.

In 1997 Frank Ryan wrote a book entitled Virus X. Ryan took the Lederberg report one more step. He actually stated that a Corona virus being air borne and highly virulent could be the source of the next plague. Ryan's prediction was spot on. But he was just reflecting the warnings by Lederberg. Airborne corona viruses were deadly and spread like wildfire.

Thus we have had almost thirty years warning over five Presidents and a CDC which seems to have been stuck in neutral not to mention a WHO which seems to be in the pocket of the Communist Chinese.

Is there a parallel? Yes, prior to the Japanese sneak attack on Pearl Harbor there was an author, Hector Bywater, who wrote the fictional book, The Great Pacific War, describing just such an attack. As I had noted a decade ago:

In 1925 an English writer, Hector Bywater, who was a journalist living in Japan, was a military journalist who had developed an excellent knowledge of all the capabilities of the worlds naval powers. After a brief while in Japan he came to see that Japan could after World War I become a  strategic threat. In 1925 he published a futuristic book about a futuristic war, one in 1931-1933, initiated by Japan against the US. In certain ways the book would presage Pearl Harbor. The attack was on the Philippines, and in a manner which almost mirrored what actually happened on December 8, 1941 and following. If MacArthur had read and understood Bywater then perhaps he may have learned something. The Japanese attack the Panama Canal, rather than Pearl, and the IS forces via their naval resources retaliate. The book alleges to cover only the first two years of the war.

As my father had said many times: Prior Planning Prevents Poor Performance. We clearly have thirty years of useless planning. That includes all five Presidents, so take your pick. Moreover, the WHO, in which Communist China has both participated and somewhat influences, were more then aware of the threat their lack of control posed. Thus we have a great deal of blame all around. But frankly, this is not new.