Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Carpet Bombing vs Strategic Bombing?

 The infectious disease expert in DC has now recommended massive carpet bombing to deal with the current pandemic. The expert states:

“We need some fundamental public health measures that everyone should be adhering to, not a disjointed, ‘One state says one thing, the other state says another thing,’”

Frankly we are in this conundrum for several reasons. First and foremost as we have noted repeatedly the CDC has managed to do its job with at best called gross incompetence in my opinion. Second, this has been a fast moving target and one where we frankly still have major questions regarding transmission. Despite the words of the wizards of DC we really do not know fully how it is transmitted. The issue of aerosols is a significant factor. Masks are a centuries old method to hopefully mitigate but if the aerosols are 30-90 nm in diameter then we may not have great mitigation. The dynamics of aerosols is quite complex as we have noted and simple hots do not really do it justice.

Each state has some means to deal with its own peculiarities. Even more so based upon our analysis of New Jersey we clearly have clustered, well defined demographic and most likely psychographic clusters. These cluster vary dramatically from region to region.  Thus having a multiplicity of approaches leads to a strong and useful database to better understand.

 For example do we use the same strategy in Dover that we used in Lakewood. Hardly. The ethnic differences are substatial as are the means to control spread. 

Washington has for the most part failed in their responsibility and duty. The expert continues:

“We’ve got to get public health issues out of the realm of political divisiveness — this is not a political issue,” he said. “We’ve got to do everything we possibly can to pull together as a nation.” He said that public health measures, like mask wearing and social distancing, would still be required, albeit to a lesser degree, while the public is vaccinated. If a sizable majority of Americans do get a vaccine, “we could be quite close to some degree of normality” by the fall of 2021, he predicted.

 The vaccine progress has been significant. It is the result of our free enterprise system and NOT the Government. One should remember that our expert has been working on a similar problem in HIV for almosy 40 years with littl progress. In contrast the Administrations broad approach has paid off, thusfar. The execution will be critical and there is some General incharge. Yet he is no General Groves. The challenge is to get the vaccine  from manufacturere to distribution point such as a Walgreens. The Moderna is much more robust and was backed directly by funds mandate by the Administration. 

Let us hope that a change in Administration does not set us back years. It did with H1N1. The same folks then as we may be next, so beware. We can readily snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. So beware of "experts" who like time in front of cameras.