The Georgia Tech has a web site that allegedly gives you the risk of getting infected at Thanksgiving. First they note:
The risk level is the estimated chance (0-100%) that at least 1 COVID-19 positive individual will be present at an event in a county, given the size of the event. Based on seroprevalence data and increases in testing, by default we assume there are five times more cases than are being reported (5:1 ascertainment bias). In places with less testing availability, that bias may be higher. We are evaluating the inclusion of lower ascertainment biases based on increased testing.
That is they state the prevalence is 5 times what is measured. Now the prevalence measured in Morris County is 0.3%. Now assume we believe these academic wizards. (Remember the old song, "I am a rambling wreck from Georgia Tech but a hell of an engineer" The remember the head of AMTRAK was from Georgia Tech, NOT). Thus the chance you get infected by one person is 1.5%. and if there are 5 people it is 8%. They say 11%, close but not good enough for an engineer.
It is a shame in my opinion and in my experience that so many academics are prognosticating on things for which they have no competence. I guess anything to get in the Press.
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