Now we can start to say something. The above chart is a plot of new daily infections nationally vs the total percent of the US population vaccinated and previously infected. Namely new infections vs immune percent. The curve shows that we have gone from about 175,000 to 75,000 new infections as we went from 13% t0 26%. I suspect it is actually more nonlinear as we see more vaccinations. One can conjecture that if we go to the end of March we will have well above 50% penetration of immunity and we will be seeing less than 25,000 new infections per day. Take that to June and I suspect we will be close to zero.
As we say in engineering, damn facts can really be annoying. The current Administration's opposite extreme negative view we believe is grossly unwarranted if one perchance looks at the data. This is the most promising data I have seen in a year. This will become a benchmark curve as we continue.
Yes I know we are also seeing the end of the Holiday peak but even if one includes that we see the effect of the vaccine already.
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