We are now into the second year of this virus. We can now start to
track the vaccines as well as the infections. As we all know the
vaccines are being handled in my opinion and in my experience locally by grossly incompetent people which
we will return to in November when the try to get into office again.
Now for the data. The first chart is a plot of doubling time versus infections per PoP in Morris County by town. I had thought one could make some sense of this and better asses hot spots but not yet. Doubling times present rates of relative growth. Infections per PoP represent density of infections. Note the highest density at 12% and it has a doubling time of less than 40 days. This is really a hot spot. We see two towns at 8% density and very short doubling times. I would worry there as well. This is what a Public Health office should be focusing on. Regrettably we have none.
Here are the doubling times and the towns. Hanover, Chester Borough, Mendham Borough, Mountain Lakes see to be fast growing.
Now we look at density. Dover and surrounding towns are high as we have been noting for months. The 4% level now seems common.
The chart below is new per day for county and town. Town is dropping as is county but held up by the hot spots.
The town prevalence is shown below. We had a peak of over 90 people out of a population of about 9000 at Christmas peak but now we are down to about 65.
Now let us look at the vaccinations of New Jersey vs West Virginia. WV is at almost 14% while NJ is at 8%. NJ has been grossly incompetent. We see 20 year olds claiming to be smokers gaming the system so they can then go out and party while 75+ are dying. Suggestion! Change the will!
Here is NJ progress. They have inoculated 727,426 which is 59% of the available vaccine. Is this a wise strategy? We will see,
Here is the available vaccines. Note Moderna is growing and Pfizer has lagged.Moderna now exceeds Pfizer. Again how about nationalizing Pfizer!
This is an interesting chart. It shows % US PoPs either vaccinated or having been infected, thus having antibodies. We are near 17% in four weeks. I suspect that by the end of February we should be close to 35% total, seeing a slowing in infections and growth in vaccinations.
The death rate is up above 3%.
But we do see some drop in LTC deaths. I still do not understand why there should be any. Also LTC reporting is very noisy and unreliable.
The doubling time for the state is near 100 days and if we go back to the towns we should be concerned with any town with doubling time less than 100!
The new infected per day on the State is below
The county is below
The infections per county is below. Morris is high but is seventh. Cape May is well controlled.
The State prevalence is below down to 0.55%. Namely 1 out of 200 people are currently infected and capable of infecting others.
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