The corona virus, AKA COVID-19, is a single stranded RNA virus. As such it is susceptible to significant mutations.
There are two essential parts to the RNA virus, non-structural and structural. The non-structural produce proteins used in reproduction of the virion. The structural rely on the non-structural to produce shells, spikes and other structural elements.
The virus RNA is about 30,000 nucleotides long, and the spike is about 3,000. Mutations typically occur at one nucleotide per duplication. Considering the millions of duplication we can anticipate millions of mutations.
Almost all bad mutations result in the death of the virus, but there will always be a few good ones which keep it alive and in fact can make it stronger. That is the problem.
Now where does this lead us? Well we have a vaccine based upon the spike protein. It stimulates the immune system to generate antibodies to kill off a virion attack. But if the spike mutates then the vaccine will not work. Yet a mutation in the spike may be such that the virion cannot attach to cells in which case it is harmless. However if we get a mutation which can attach and enter and is not like the one matched for in the vaccine, then we have a problem.
We have this yearly with our flu shots. But flu deaths in the US are about 70,000 per year whereas COVID is allegedly now five times that. But the 70,000 is with a vaccine. So it is a bit of apples and oranges. Yet it may mean we will never really get rid of COVID and its descendants, along with the mortality.
Thus the problem is; the longer we defer vaccinating people the better the virus chance to mutate to a more deadly strain. This means that since we have vaccines coming out rapidly the gross incompetence of the States will likely result in a more virulent infection and a surge later this year.
The concept of herd immunity is invalid. The mutation of the virus must be stopped before it stops humanity, or at least that part outside of China.
Finally we can ask; why are mutations so important? Simply, since this virus is so pandemic in its reach, the fact that so many people are infected means we have so many sources for mutation. It is thus critical to have universal immunization, not just so people are not ill, but more importantly so people do not become reservoirs for massive mutation!
Oh and by the way, it turns out that the spike and ACE2 receptor do not match well for Chinese people, whereas for the rest of the world it is a perfect match. Thus the virus is much more virulent for the rest of us. Interesting fact.
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