NJ 2020 04 17

We start with the prevalence charts for NJ and Morris.

The above shows a good representation but a concern about some leveling.

The county shows a good progression downward as expected.

The death rates are declining but again the validity of the data is truly in question.

The doubling time for NJ is well above 15 so we are well beyond any peak.

Then again there are counties where one should continue aggressively. Bergen, Essex, Union, possibly Hudson. The other ones with shorter doubling are small counties.

Morris has a good doubling and as such may be considered for mitigation loosing. I would argue any county with a doubling in excess of 20 would be allowed to progress out of mitigation.

The total number are shown above. Finally our summary curve is below:

As to the Government suggestions, we need to have specifics as I had stated a week ago. I suggested the county prevalence number. I also suggested the doubling number. However the problem still is the integrity of the data as well as the limited testing on non-presenting individuals. Until and unless this is done we are wasting time and money.