NJ 2020 04 04

The above is the total for the state. It still is growing at a fast rate.

The daily % change is 19% a reduction from yesterday and the first time in the teens since March 25.

The above is a summary of the per PoP numbers for all of the state by county. The hot counties remain Bergen, Union, Hudson and Passaic. Morris, Monmouth, Middlesex and Ocean are second tier.

Morris doubling time has decreased to a serious level approaching the deadly 2.5 level. This could be due to a variety of factors including report delays and increased testing as well as disease progression. This is the biggest problem with the data. It is raw and inconsistent. As noted previously massive ongoing testing must be done otherwise we still view it as almost anecdotal.

The above is the doubling time by county as of today. Ocean most likely is wrong. Atlantic is a small count artifact and Passaic is a problem county.

Reflecting the previous is the above doubling time. We see it may be approaching 4. The models do not reflect this type of noisy behavior in data collection.