The Times states:
To reopen the United States by mid-May, the number of
daily tests performed between now and then should be 500,000 to
700,000, according to the Harvard estimates. That level of testing is necessary to identify the majority of people
who are infected and isolate them from people who are healthy, according
to the researchers. About 20 percent of those tested so far were
positive for the virus, a rate that the researchers say is too high.
The Times seems to mix up per day and per week. They also seem to miss random vs those showing signs. The random tests will be a privacy issue. How many people will agree to be randomly tested,
The next problem is what result are we looking at. I chose prevalence, namely those showing active viral loads, not Abs. Active viral load greater than say 0.5% may be a reasonable cutoff. Frankly it is a guess and forget the stupid models.
The problem is the logistics of testing. We seem to have left it in the hands of the Government, Feds and State, both grossly incompetent to do this. Thus one wonders why we just cannot allow people to pick up a test vial, log on to the system, deposit the specimen, return the vial, and await their result. There are CVS, Walgreens etc all over, so why not?
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