NJ 2020 04 21

Today does not look like a good day. One wonders why. There was a big jump in deaths.

In fact it is the largest we have recorded. Now we recognize it is a lagging indicator but it is quite a big jump and as usual with outliers I ask why. Have been doing this for fifty years.

The total number shows the bump in growth as well. However for Morris we have:

The 14 day running average is lower. We are now 4 days with negative 14 day running averages. Perhaps a good time to pen parks? If not tell us what you want, stop playing Three Card Monte.

All counties above in current 14 day. Union is still a concern.

Prevalence for the state is flat. For Morris it is as below:

Also flat. The doubling time is:

and for the county:

These are still good doubling times but there is a concern about today's data. I would question timing. We seem to have a Tuesday problem. Worth doing an FFT on the data.

The above is the summary chart.