Principle 1: Demonstrate Sustained Reductions in New
COVID-19 Cases and Hospitalizations
• 14-day trend lines showing appreciable and sustained
drop in cases, hospitalizations, and other metrics;
• Hospitals stepping down from functioning under crisis
standards of care.
Now as we have been saying for two months, we need metrics,
numbers, which we can attach to the process. The problem in the above is twofold.
First as we have noted again and again there is no reliability, consistency
credibility in the numbers provided. I have given a multiplicity of examples,
the death total being a prime example. Second, just what number are we focusing
on. This proposal is vague and lacks and form of transparency even if the
numbers were valid. We have done a multiplicity of 14 day trends and all seem
to be well into the negative range. But, alas, that uses the poor numbers and
the metrics I chose. What is the Governor choosing? He is, in my opinion, playing Three Card
Monty as are most politicians since they do not have a clue. Finally
transparency is critical. People must see the numbers day by day, they must
have access to the details, subject to HIPPA, and this Three Card Monty scheme
of the government must disappear. Otherwise there is no trust, and people are
losing trust very quickly.
By the way, here is the data for New Jersey and Morris County with a 14 day running average by day for changes in new cases. I wonder if this is what they want to measure, if so Free Morris!
By the way, here is the data for New Jersey and Morris County with a 14 day running average by day for changes in new cases. I wonder if this is what they want to measure, if so Free Morris!
If numbers count then what are we counting?
Principle 2: Expand Testing Capacity
• At least double current diagnostic testing capacity;
• Prioritize testing for health care workers, essential
personnel, and vulnerable populations;
• Create a flexible testing plan accessible to all
residents;
• Expand partnerships with institutions of higher
education, private-sector labs, and the federal government.
• Ensure that those who test positive are linked to a
health care provider.
This is a no-brainer. I had thought that Rutgers, the state
university, had developed and implemented just such a test. If so then where is
it? I suspect it is just another academic public relations push, then
disappears into the land of being the unreproducible. But apart from that as we
had suggested more than a month ago the ability to get testing kits sent to a
home, on site testing, drug chain testing and the list goes on. This above
looks like some McKinesey chart I have seen many times before. Lots of words
and no specifics. The answer is simple; just do it, don't chart it.
Principle 3: Implement Robust Contact Tracing
• Recruit and deploy an army of personnel who will
identify and follow-up with contacts;
• Leverage technological data and innovative solutions to
increase efficiency;
• Coordinate the approach of local and state health
officials, which will have a coordinated county/regional component.
The "army" quote is terrifying. Yes contact
tracing must be done, as we do in many highly communicable diseases. Technical
approaches are many, none yet proven, and we have discussed these at length
months ago. Each has strength and weakness. One should recall how we tried all
of this during the AIDS epidemic and there was a bit of a revolt. Perhaps it
may be even more of a revolt here as well.
Principle 4: Secure Safe Places and Resources for
Isolation and Quarantine
• To the greatest extent possible, provide individuals
who do test positive in the future with a safe and free place to isolate and
protect others from COVID-19;
• Ensure that quarantined contacts are provided supportive
services, if needed.
This one is terrifying, truly. Do they mean that if one
tests positive then "shelter in place' of whatever must be abandoned and
the state comes in and takes you to a state run quarantine. That in my opinion
is a death sentence and hopefully the Constitution still holds sway somewhere.
Although one wonders as politicians get more and more power. Quarantine is a
term of art. Here the term of art seems to expressly imply depriving an
infected person of their freedom without due process and sending them to a quarantine
camp, most likely to die. I believe we fought a World War against such people,
if memory serves me correctly. Also if people see this putative death sentence
if they get tested, then testing may fall by the wayside, since if you get
tested and are positive, well you know the answer now. Also, perhaps then the
state will demand that everyone be tested, and those they deem positive, and
yes there are false positives, are taken from society and sent to the
quarantine camps. I wonder who wrote this recommendation?
Principle 5: Execute a Responsible Economic Restart
• Create the Governor’s Restart and Recovery Commission
to advise on the process and recommend responsible
and equitable decisions;
• Plan for a methodical and strategic return to work
based on level of disease transmission risk and essential
classification;
• Continuation of social distancing measures where
feasible and appropriate;
• Leverage any available federal funds and programs to
support health care, individual, and small business recoveries.
The above seems to be the prototypical palaver of the
politicians. First thing to do when you have no ideas; create a commission.
Principle 6: Ensure New Jersey’s Resiliency
• Learn from the lessons of COVID-19 and prepare for the
possibility of a resurgence;
• Ensure hospitals, health care systems, and other health
delivery facilities have inventories of personal protective
equipment and ventilators;
• Build our own state personal protective equipment and
ventilator stockpile;
• Create a playbook for future administrations for the
next pandemic.
Simply stated, the above seems to say that the state should
not be caught with its trousers down again. Good idea.
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