As the NY Times opines today:
How much more is needed? To sustain a resumption of activity, estimates range from 500,000 tests per day to five million per day, and beyond. The uncertainties are considerable; what is clear is that the current level is not enough...On Tuesday, the Rockefeller Foundation published a useful road map
for the United States to reach three million tests per week by late
June. The foundation’s expert panel estimates that would be sufficient
to test people with coronavirus symptoms, people identified as coming
into contact with those who have the virus and people at high risk if
they get the virus. That, in turn, would allow for a limited return to
normal activity across much of the country.The
core of the foundation’s plan is the conscription of laboratory
facilities that currently perform other kinds of tests, including
university labs and small private labs. The foundation estimates that
two-thirds of the nation’s molecular testing capacity is used for other
purposes and could be easily redirected.
Now the Rockefeller report seems to have not a single qualified and accepted statistical metric or analysis to validate their recommendations. The Principals seem in my opinion for the most part to be political poseurs setting forth an agenda for controlling life of every citizen in this country according to their dictates.
Now I had proposed a statistics and scientific based approach. In a top down view it would be county by county, weekly tests, at a level so that the statistical significance would be adequate to assess the incidence, prevalence and stability of any viral infection. A simple back of the envelope would mean 3000 counties and 500 to 1000 tests randomly per county per week. Even that is massive being some 1.5 to 3 million tests per week. The logistics would be complex and the personal privacy issues would also be complex. However it is compliant with the Santa Clara approach wherein real highly competent statisticians proposed and executed a plan, not academic politicos.
The challenge will be the logistics and infrastructure. Namely we need to have the following:
1. Willing test participants from all counties. No compelling.
2. Simple and non invasive test systems for the RNA and the Ab
3. Easily accessible locations for testing. When I was young, that was a while ago, there were TB testing van that went out to get people tested, via chest X rays, and I am certain that we can achieve something better.
4. Information accuracy and timeliness is critical. Today at least in the New Jersey numbers we have no sense of reliability. Data must be timely, accurate, and detailed. Data must be anonymized and transparent to everyone in a timely manner. No Three Card Monty.
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