Massive Testing

Some Harvard folks have proposed testing on the level of 20 million per day! Yes, that means we test every person once every two weeks. Let me note two points:

We estimate that steady-state testing levels that would permit replacing collective stay-at-home orders as the main tool for disease control with a testing—tracing-and-warning—supported-isolation, or TTSI, methodology will eventually need to reach a capacity to test 2 to 6% of the population per day, or between 5 and 20 million people per day. 

and

Testing programs would use both PCR tests (polymerase chain reaction tests that identify genetic material) to identify the presence of the virus itself and serological tests to identify the presence of antibodies to the virus in a patient. The point of the latter is typically to assess disease prevalence and/or immunity after infection. Because research is still uncertain about what percentage of the U.S. population has already been infected, the durability of any immunity conferred by antibodies, and the rate of asymptomatic carriers, it is too early to say how the balance will shift over time between the two testing methodologies. For now, we should presume that we will need to deploy PCR testing broadly. In addition, testing to determine who needs to be isolated also allows public authorities to say who can safely move about. Those who have tested negative within a very recent window and those who show immunity in reliable antibody tests (assuming these prove feasible) should be free to return to work. Certificates of immunity should be used only in contexts where people have equal access to PCR testing and where a recent negative test result on a PCR test provides the same access to mobility as immunity. Any other use of immunity certificates would be likely to violate constitutional equal protection requirements.

Or as the Germans use to say: "Do you have your papers, otherwise there will be consequences!" Reading through this report is like seeing into an evil universe controlled by some self selected group who view control and power at hand.

We cannot get everyone to vote, no less answer their Census data report but we will get to invasive test everyone every two weeks!

Also statistical sampling can be accomplished at several orders of magnitude lower, say 1.5 million per week. Even that is massive. Buy 20 million a day every day. The logistics would be insane. But after all it is Harvard and they must know what is right! 

Just an afterthought. If we do 20 million tests a day at $500 per test minimum that is $10 billion a day or $4 trillion a year! Now let us assume one person can do 12 test per hour or 100 tests per day. We then need 2 million people 7 days a week, or about 3.5 million people 5 days a week with vacations. Are these people NUTS!