NJ 2020 04 14

We begin by saying that we really cannot trust the data. It is reported daily but most likely is a mix of data from several previous days or even weeks. The reporting is, in my opinion, almost recklessly assembled and thus may most likely be of little value if the state needs to get out of this mess. Considering our former Goldman Sachs Gov one would have anticipated integrity and accuracy in numbers. Thus there is a warning as to the usefulness of these numbers.

As usual we start with the total reported positives. As we noted recently we have no clue when these were taken and thus they most likely do not represent yesterday's tests. Perhaps we shall never know.

This is the death tally. Perhaps what we have is an under reporting from Easter Sunday on yesterday and thus a jamming of the numbers yesterday. It is this lack of integrity of the numbers which is a concern.

The doubling time looks reasonable give yesterday's aberration. It may confirm my guess.

The totals and symptomatic are reasonable. On symptomatic I suspect we are past the peak but again due to the unreliable data we may never know.

The % who have been infected is now about 0.75% Still a low overall number. Indeed it is drastically lower than the 50% to 75% stated by the Academics.

The above is the state prevalence, now at about 0.5%.

The county prevalence has plateaued. It may drop soon but again who believes the numbers!

The town stats are below. The dense towns have the higher stats.

The town doubling time is now above 50 days. If that is the case then it is almost dormant! Now we examined the NY stats by co-morbidity. It is worth a look.

The above is the split by co-morbidity. Note a person may have multiple.

Clearly hypertension is a serious co-morbidity. Diabetes is one.