NJ 2020 04 19

Again we hope Google does not wipe out all the charts. So let us begin. First we address the new Gating guidelines. Namely the 14 day window. I have calculated the 14 day moving average of the change in new cases per day for each county. As best as one can ascertain this is what the White House has mandated. Now take a look as of today by county:

This is now a critical curve! Note that Morris and Passaic have dropped dramatically. Others are also negative. Thus I ask; is this what was set as a condition? Does our Goldman Sachs wizard have a clue here? These are facts. Not scientific facts but actual measurable and reported facts based upon the data presented. Are we ever to act on the facts?

Now the prevalence curves:

and for the county:

Note prevalence is dropping continuously. It is a bit slower than I had initially anticipated.

The percent of the state infected based on the data is below:

It is now 0.9%. Using the Santa Clara model we would expect a 45% total infected where most have no symptoms. That means we are more than half way to herd immunity.

The death rates are below:

They are dropping but again we have no belief that these are truly factual. Our summary chart is:

and the end chart showing growth is:

Both show clear declines. The doubling time for the state is below:

and for the county:

Finally the total number:

Now to repeat is we have any belief in the Gating principle then the key measurable factor, if I have guessed correctly, i met and we should start opening up counties. However given the Goldman Sachs leader we expect a long incarceration, Pity!