Thursday, April 30, 2020

NJ 2020 04 30

Sometimes the data makes no sense. Here we have the deaths for what is supposed to be the past 24 hours. I have been tracking the local OEM reports which also complain about the inconsistencies.
I truly think the data is grossly distorted. This is a massive increase in deaths compared to a massive drop on the weekend. This means to me that the data is grossly corrupted and of little if any use. How is the State to make any decisions based upon this nonsense.
The above is the total testing positive.
The above is the town. One suspects that even here we have a large delayed contribution from Nursing Homes since we have quite a few.
In contrast we have the 14 day running average continue to be negative.
The above is the state prevalence and
the above is the county. Note the continued decline.
The current town stats for the county are above. Again two towns dominate. One epidemiologically should be asking why.
The above is the growth in towns over the tracking period. Most cluster at the bottom. There are per PoP numbers and Dover is a massive outlier dominating all others. Again we ask why?
The above is the 14 day change for state and county. Again we seem to be doing well.

We are now left with the following questions:

1. Why are some towns so bad off when adjacent are not. What is the driver?
2. Why should we not see a dramatic decrease since we have been at this for 7 weeks and that is more than enough to see a sense of closure of the infection. What is keeping it alive?
3. The death rates are massively misrepresented. Why and how do we reflect the truth.
4. If decisions are made on date, call it science if you must, what data are we making them on and how reliable is it?
5. Why is there no transparency with Government?

Overall any recovery must be based on facts and unfortunately the state lacks any such reliable facts. The Gov's committee to open the state appears to lack the competence to achieve this in my opinion. This gross level of incompetence may doom the state in the long run.